Dayana Yastremska vs Talia Gibson
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
05 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Dayana Yastremska
Dayana …: 77,7% Talia …: 22,3%
¿Por qué Dayana Yastremska?
UTR 12,26 vs 11,84 (+0,48) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dayana … Talia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,55 2,55 64,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,29 4,48 77,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Dayana …: +4,8% Talia …: -4,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Talia Gibson
Ranking #119
UTR Rating 11,84 Pro
UTR Ranking #145
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 6/16 = 37,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 95,0000
rank_ratio 4,5185
log_rank_ratio 1,5082
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 970,0000
best_rank_diff 84,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 17,6724
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,9091
surface_matches_ratio 1,8125
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 37,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,7500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 1,7505
first_serve_won_diff 0,9138
second_serve_won_diff 5,8207
bp_saved_diff 10,6897
bp_converted_diff 8,9138
aces_per_match_diff -0,2263
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 8,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 17,8300
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 74,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 67,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8083
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5361
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 9,7517
serve_consistency_p2 8,8199
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 26,6533
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0433
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0300
elite_surface_amplifier 35,3448
UTR
utr_diff 0,4800
utr_p1 0,5059
utr_p2 0,4494
utr_advantage 3,9801
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21341
API ID 15309864
Gamdom ID 569346
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21341,
    "api_id": 15309864,
    "gamdom_id": 569346,
    "player1": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "player2": "Talia Gibson",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-05T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.55,
      "p2": 2.55
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.51,
      "p2": 2.52
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.777,
    "prob_p2": 0.223,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.777,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 119,
      "utr_singles": 11.84,
      "utr_ranking": 145,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 37.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.84,
      "ranking": 145,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.4494117647058824,
    "utr_diff": 0.4800000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 4.518518518518518,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 8.0,
    "points_diff": 970,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.689655172413794,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 37.5,
    "utr_advantage": 3.9800995024875654,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 84,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.5081841787289274,
    "rank_advantage": 95,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8333333333333334,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 17.672413793103445,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.91379310344827,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": 1.7505172413793133,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8083333333333333,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5360824742268041,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.2262931034482758,
    "combined_confidence": 0.75,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.9137931034482776,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.751699273214511,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.819882121611377,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 26.653254882709486,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.820689655172416,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 17.83,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 35.34482758620689,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 74,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 67,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.0432758620689655,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.030000000000000027,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.909090909090905,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}