Elsa Jacquemot vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elsa Jacquemot
Elsa …: 54,6%
Ajla …: 45,5%
¿Por qué Elsa Jacquemot?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,26
(-0,24)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elsa … | Ajla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,31 | 1,65 | 43,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,83 | 2,20 | 54,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elsa …: +13,2%
Ajla …: -13,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking
#60
UTR Rating
11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking
#122
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 25,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,4545 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3747 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 232,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -23,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 12,4339 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 9,9798 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0370 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,6129 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9167 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,3944 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,9214 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,1786 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,9607 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,8643 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,7937 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,3900 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 20,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 66,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8824 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5288 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,7323 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,2807 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,6589 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1179 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0435 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4694 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4976 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,9818 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21342
API ID
15309867
Gamdom ID
569342
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21342,
"api_id": 15309867,
"gamdom_id": 569342,
"player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
"player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-04T01:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.31,
"p2": 1.65
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.26,
"p2": 1.63
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5455,
"prob_p2": 0.4545,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5455,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 60,
"utr_singles": 11.94,
"utr_ranking": 122,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 122,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.4545454545454546,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 232,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.960714285714289,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 22.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
"utr_advantage": -1.98183319570603,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -23,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.3746934494414107,
"rank_advantage": 25,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 12.433862433862444,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.864285714285721,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.394444444444439,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.7936507936507935,
"combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.9214285714285637,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.732298205694199,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.280743896062656,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.658886805223894,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.1785714285714235,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.037037037037037,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.39,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 20,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11785714285714288,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04351851851851851,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.979838709677423,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}