Elsa Jacquemot vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elsa Jacquemot
Elsa …: 54,6% Ajla …: 45,5%
¿Por qué Elsa Jacquemot?
UTR 11,94 vs 12,26 (-0,24) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elsa … Ajla … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,31 1,65 43,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,83 2,20 54,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Elsa …: +13,2% Ajla …: -13,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elsa Jacquemot
Ranking #60
UTR Rating 11,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 25,0000
rank_ratio 1,4545
log_rank_ratio 0,3747
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 232,0000
best_rank_diff -23,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 12,4339
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,9798
surface_matches_ratio 1,0370
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,6129
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,3944
first_serve_won_diff 2,9214
second_serve_won_diff -2,1786
bp_saved_diff 5,9607
bp_converted_diff -0,8643
aces_per_match_diff 1,7937
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,3900
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 20,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 66,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8824
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5288
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,7323
serve_consistency_p2 4,2807
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,6589
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1179
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0435
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2400
utr_p1 0,4694
utr_p2 0,4976
utr_advantage -1,9818
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21342
API ID 15309867
Gamdom ID 569342
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21342,
    "api_id": 15309867,
    "gamdom_id": 569342,
    "player1": "Elsa Jacquemot",
    "player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-04T01:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.31,
      "p2": 1.65
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.26,
      "p2": 1.63
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5455,
    "prob_p2": 0.4545,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5455,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 60,
      "utr_singles": 11.94,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.94,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.49764705882352944,
    "utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4545454545454546,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": 232,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.960714285714289,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 22.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": -1.98183319570603,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3746934494414107,
    "rank_advantage": 25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 12.433862433862444,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.864285714285721,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.394444444444439,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8823529411764706,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.7936507936507935,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.9214285714285637,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.732298205694199,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.280743896062656,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.658886805223894,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.1785714285714235,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.037037037037037,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.39,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 20,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11785714285714288,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04351851851851851,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.979838709677423,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}