Emiliana Arango vs McCartney Kessler
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
McCartney Kessler
Emiliana …: 46,2%
McCartney …: 53,8%
¿Por qué McCartney Kessler?
UTR 11,90 vs 12,39
(-0,42)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emiliana … | McCartney … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,75 | 1,28 | 26,7% |
| Gamdom | 3,95 | 1,27 | 25,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,16 | 1,86 | 46,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emiliana …: +20,8%
McCartney …: -20,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emiliana Arango
Ranking
#51
UTR Rating
11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#124
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
17/31 = 54,8%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6327 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4578 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -397,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,4470 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,7578 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7381 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 54,8387 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,0435 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0968 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,7012 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,5000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,1000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,8556 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -12,4840 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 66,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 73,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5556 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7901 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,7763 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,5343 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,3252 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0664 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1249 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4682 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5176 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,4454 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21343
API ID
15309869
Gamdom ID
569345
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21343,
"api_id": 15309869,
"gamdom_id": 569345,
"player1": "Emiliana Arango",
"player2": "McCartney Kessler",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-04T01:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.75,
"p2": 1.28
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.95,
"p2": 1.27
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.9,
"p2": 1.25
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4621,
"prob_p2": 0.5379,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5379,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 51,
"utr_singles": 11.9,
"utr_ranking": 124,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 54.83870967741935,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 124,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.6326530612244898,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -397,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.5000000000000071,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 54.83870967741935,
"surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
"utr_advantage": -3.445447087776865,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -16,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4578330936254803,
"rank_advantage": -18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -9.44700460829494,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.1000000000000014,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 42,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.701213517665131,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.8556067588325653,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0967741935483871,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.776295947958602,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.534295812150855,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.325151345309841,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.285714285714285,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.8000000000000043,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7380952380952381,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -12.484000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 73,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06638709677419352,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12485714285714289,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.757763975155285,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}