Emiliana Arango vs McCartney Kessler
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
McCartney Kessler
Emiliana …: 46,2% McCartney …: 53,8%
¿Por qué McCartney Kessler?
UTR 11,90 vs 12,39 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emiliana … McCartney … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,28 26,7%
Gamdom 3,95 1,27 25,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,16 1,86 46,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Emiliana …: +20,8% McCartney …: -20,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emiliana Arango
Ranking #51
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #124
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 17/31 = 54,8%
McCartney Kessler
Ranking #37
UTR Rating 12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 27/42 = 64,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -18,0000
rank_ratio 0,6327
log_rank_ratio -0,4578
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -397,0000
best_rank_diff -16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,4470
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,7578
surface_matches_ratio 0,7381
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,8387
surface_wr_p2 64,2857
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,2857
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,0435
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 42,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0968
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,7012
first_serve_won_diff -5,5000
second_serve_won_diff -0,8000
bp_saved_diff -0,5000
bp_converted_diff 3,1000
aces_per_match_diff -0,8556
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -12,4840
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 66,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 73,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5556
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7901
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 7,7763
serve_consistency_p2 7,5343
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,3252
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0664
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1249
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,4682
utr_p2 0,5176
utr_advantage -3,4454
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21343
API ID 15309869
Gamdom ID 569345
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21343,
    "api_id": 15309869,
    "gamdom_id": 569345,
    "player1": "Emiliana Arango",
    "player2": "McCartney Kessler",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-04T01:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.28
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.95,
      "p2": 1.27
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.9,
      "p2": 1.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4621,
    "prob_p2": 0.5379,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5379,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 51,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 124,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.83870967741935,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 37,
      "utr_singles": 12.39,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.9,
      "ranking": 124,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.39,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4682352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6326530612244898,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -397,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.5000000000000071,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.83870967741935,
    "surface_wr_p2": 64.28571428571429,
    "utr_advantage": -3.445447087776865,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4578330936254803,
    "rank_advantage": -18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -9.44700460829494,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.1000000000000014,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 42,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.701213517665131,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5555555555555556,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7901234567901234,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8556067588325653,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0967741935483871,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.776295947958602,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.534295812150855,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.325151345309841,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.285714285714285,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.04347826086957,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.8000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7380952380952381,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -12.484000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 73,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.06638709677419352,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12485714285714289,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.757763975155285,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}