Tatjana Maria vs Emerson Jones
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
05 Ene 2026, 14:25
05 Ene 2026, 14:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tatjana Maria
Tatjana …: 52,9%
Emerson …: 47,1%
¿Por qué Tatjana Maria?
UTR 11,90 vs 11,85
(+0,14)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tatjana … | Emerson … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,20 | 1,36 | 31,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,40 | 1,34 | 29,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,89 | 2,12 | 52,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tatjana …: +23,1%
Emerson …: -23,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tatjana Maria
Ranking
#42
UTR Rating
11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#131
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
9/27 = 33,3%
Emerson Jones
Ranking
#153
UTR Rating
11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
3/7 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 106,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,3556 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,2106 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 737,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 114,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -9,5238 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,3295 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,8571 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 35,4839 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 46,8182 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6467 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,6420 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,0481 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,4481 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,4074 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,9259 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,5503 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -8,0740 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 134,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5652 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3750 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,5799 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,1095 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -11,5297 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2727 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0346 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -19,0476 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4635 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4471 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,1794 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21349
API ID
15309865
Gamdom ID
569343
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21349,
"api_id": 15309865,
"gamdom_id": 569343,
"player1": "Tatjana Maria",
"player2": "Emerson Jones",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-05T10:25:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.2,
"p2": 1.3599999999999999
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.34
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.26,
"p2": 1.34
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5294,
"prob_p2": 0.4706,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5294,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 11.9,
"utr_ranking": 131,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 153,
"utr_singles": 11.85,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Junior",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 131,
"division": "Pro",
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},
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"ranking": 3,
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"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
"rank_ratio": 3.3555555555555556,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 52.0,
"points_diff": 737,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.4074074074074048,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -9.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 1.1794439764111102,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 114,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.2106173470446047,
"rank_advantage": 106,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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"surface_wr_diff": -9.523809523809526,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.925925925925924,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.6420105820105846,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5652173913043478,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.375,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.5502645502645502,
"combined_confidence": 0.6466666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.048148148148144,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.579932882577376,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.109495176474574,
"surface_rank_synergy": -11.529689019472427,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.483870967741936,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 46.81818181818182,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.4481481481481424,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.857142857142857,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -8.074000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -19.04761904761905,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 32,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 134,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2726666666666667,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03457142857142853,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.329521016617792,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}