Tatjana Maria vs Emerson Jones
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
05 Ene 2026, 14:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tatjana Maria
Tatjana …: 52,9% Emerson …: 47,1%
¿Por qué Tatjana Maria?
UTR 11,90 vs 11,85 (+0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tatjana … Emerson … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 3,40 1,34 29,4%
IA Fair Odds 1,89 2,12 52,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Tatjana …: +23,1% Emerson …: -23,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tatjana Maria
Ranking #42
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #131
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 9/27 = 33,3%
Emerson Jones
Ranking #153
UTR Rating 11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 3/7 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 106,0000
rank_ratio 3,3556
log_rank_ratio 1,2106
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 737,0000
best_rank_diff 114,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -9,5238
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,3295
surface_matches_ratio 3,8571
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 35,4839
surface_wr_p2_stable 46,8182
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,6467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,6420
first_serve_won_diff -2,0481
second_serve_won_diff -1,4481
bp_saved_diff 0,4074
bp_converted_diff 4,9259
aces_per_match_diff 2,5503
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -8,0740
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 32,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 134,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5652
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,5799
serve_consistency_p2 9,1095
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,5297
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2727
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0346
elite_surface_amplifier -19,0476
UTR
utr_diff 0,1400
utr_p1 0,4635
utr_p2 0,4471
utr_advantage 1,1794
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21349
API ID 15309865
Gamdom ID 569343
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21349,
    "api_id": 15309865,
    "gamdom_id": 569343,
    "player1": "Tatjana Maria",
    "player2": "Emerson Jones",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-05T10:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.4,
      "p2": 1.34
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.26,
      "p2": 1.34
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5294,
    "prob_p2": 0.4706,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5294,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 42,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 131,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 153,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 131,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.44705882352941184,
    "utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": 737,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.4074074074074048,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -9.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
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    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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    "surface_wr_diff": -9.523809523809526,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.925925925925924,
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    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.6420105820105846,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5652173913043478,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.375,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.5502645502645502,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.048148148148144,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.579932882577376,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.109495176474574,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.529689019472427,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 35.483870967741936,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 46.81818181818182,
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    "weighted_momentum_diff": -8.074000000000005,
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    "days_since_last_match_p1": 32,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 134,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.2726666666666667,
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    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.329521016617792,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}