Daria Kasatkina vs Anastasia Potapova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 06:05
04 Ene 2026, 06:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 50,6%
Anastasia …: 49,4%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 12,10
(+0,01)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daria … | Anastasia … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,10 | 57,8% |
| Gamdom | 2,02 | 1,83 | 49,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,98 | 2,02 | 50,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daria …: -4,3%
Anastasia …: +4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking
#43
UTR Rating
12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#58
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/25 = 48,0%
Anastasia Potapova
Ranking
#55
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#78
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 13,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,3514 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,3011 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 203,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 13,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -10,6207 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,3699 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8621 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,6207 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,2759 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,5758 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 25,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0400 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,8333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -4,0041 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,8276 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,0828 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,2034 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,3310 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4828 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -48,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -40,4200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 98,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 94,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6488 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6639 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3333 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,8146 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,7244 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,1979 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0330 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0992 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4941 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4929 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0820 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21351
API ID
15309871
Gamdom ID
569351
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 64
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21351,
"api_id": 15309871,
"gamdom_id": 569351,
"player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
"player2": "Anastasia Potapova",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 64",
"date": "2026-01-04T02:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.02,
"p2": 1.83
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.86,
"p2": 1.93
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5057,
"prob_p2": 0.4943,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5057,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 43,
"utr_singles": 12.18,
"utr_ranking": 58,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 25,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 55,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 78,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 58,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.1,
"ranking": 78,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.49294117647058816,
"utr_diff": 0.009999999999999787,
"rank_ratio": 1.3513513513513513,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 203,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.2034482758620726,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -47.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
"utr_advantage": 0.08200082000819833,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 13,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.3011050927839216,
"rank_advantage": 13,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -10.620689655172406,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.331034482758618,
"p1_surface_matches": 25,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -4.004137931034478,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6638655462184874,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.48275862068965525,
"combined_confidence": 0.8999999999999999,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.827586206896548,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.814616735619159,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.724362498860796,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.197943744049924,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.08275862068966,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8620689655172413,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -40.420000000000016,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 98,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 94,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03300000000000003,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0992068965517241,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.369905956112856,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}