Daria Kasatkina vs Anastasia Potapova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 64
04 Ene 2026, 06:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daria Kasatkina
Daria …: 50,6% Anastasia …: 49,4%
¿Por qué Daria Kasatkina?
UTR 12,18 vs 12,10 (+0,01) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daria … Anastasia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,10 57,8%
Gamdom 2,02 1,83 49,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,98 2,02 50,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Daria …: -4,3% Anastasia …: +4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daria Kasatkina
Ranking #43
UTR Rating 12,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #58
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Anastasia Potapova
Ranking #55
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #78
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/29 = 58,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 13,0000
rank_ratio 1,3514
log_rank_ratio 0,3011
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 203,0000
best_rank_diff 13,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -10,6207
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,3699
surface_matches_ratio 0,8621
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 58,6207
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,5758
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,0041
first_serve_won_diff -4,8276
second_serve_won_diff -2,0828
bp_saved_diff -1,2034
bp_converted_diff 7,3310
aces_per_match_diff -0,4828
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -48,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -40,4200
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 98,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 94,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6488
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6639
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 6,8146
serve_consistency_p2 11,7244
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,1979
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0330
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0992
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0100
utr_p1 0,4941
utr_p2 0,4929
utr_advantage 0,0820
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21351
API ID 15309871
Gamdom ID 569351
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21351,
    "api_id": 15309871,
    "gamdom_id": 569351,
    "player1": "Daria Kasatkina",
    "player2": "Anastasia Potapova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2026-01-04T02:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.02,
      "p2": 1.83
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.86,
      "p2": 1.93
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5057,
    "prob_p2": 0.4943,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5057,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 43,
      "utr_singles": 12.18,
      "utr_ranking": 58,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 55,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 78,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.620689655172406,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.18,
      "ranking": 58,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 78,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.49294117647058816,
    "utr_diff": 0.009999999999999787,
    "rank_ratio": 1.3513513513513513,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 203,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.2034482758620726,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -47.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.620689655172406,
    "utr_advantage": 0.08200082000819833,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 13,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3011050927839216,
    "rank_advantage": 13,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.3333333333333333,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -10.620689655172406,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.331034482758618,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.004137931034478,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6487804878048781,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6638655462184874,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.48275862068965525,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8999999999999999,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.827586206896548,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.814616735619159,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.724362498860796,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.197943744049924,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.57575757575758,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.08275862068966,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8620689655172413,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -40.420000000000016,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 98,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 94,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03300000000000003,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.0992068965517241,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.369905956112856,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}