Arthur Cazaux vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Brisbane | Hard | Qualification Final
04 Ene 2026, 05:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pablo Carreño Busta
Arthur …: 30,3% Pablo …: 69,7%
¿Por qué Pablo Carreño Busta?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Arthur … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,00 73,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,30 1,44 30,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Arthur …: -38,4% Pablo …: +38,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Cazaux
Ranking #67
UTR Rating 15,24 Pro
UTR Ranking #57
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/33 = 54,5%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 29,0000
rank_ratio 1,4531
log_rank_ratio 0,3737
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 180,0000
best_rank_diff -48,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -13,8756
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -12,6126
surface_matches_ratio 0,8684
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 54,5455
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,0541
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0909
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,3794
first_serve_won_diff 3,7283
second_serve_won_diff -3,6679
bp_saved_diff 2,8175
bp_converted_diff 0,1577
aces_per_match_diff 4,8078
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,7200
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6800
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8571
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6154
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 3,3512
serve_consistency_p2 6,2028
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,1855
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0165
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2132
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8729
utr_p2 0,8729
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21355
API ID 15309608
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21355,
    "api_id": 15309608,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Arthur Cazaux",
    "player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-04T01:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3636363636363638,
      "p2": 3.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.37,
      "p2": 3.01
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3032,
    "prob_p2": 0.6968,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6968,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 67,
      "utr_singles": 15.24,
      "utr_ranking": 57,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.54545454545454,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 94,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 57,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.453125,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 180,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.8175438596491205,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -7.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": -48,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.37371640979358406,
    "rank_advantage": 29,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6153846153846154,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -13.875598086124405,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.15773524720894017,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.379401913875597,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.68,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.807814992025518,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.728309409888354,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.09090909090909091,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.351241211738062,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.20278273156746,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.185538700485139,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.054054054054056,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.6679425837320565,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.868421052631579,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.719999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.01645454545454539,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21321052631578952,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -12.612612612612601,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}