Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales vs Anastasia Gasanova
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 10:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Anastasia Gasanova
Guiomar …: 34,1% Anastasia …: 66,0%
¿Por qué Anastasia Gasanova?
UTR 11,63 vs 11,68 (-0,02) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (34%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Guiomar … Anastasia … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,25 1,57 44,4%
Gamdom 2,75 1,40 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,94 1,52 34,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Guiomar …: -7,1% Anastasia …: +7,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales
Ranking #185
UTR Rating 11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #204
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 1/3 = 33,3%
Anastasia Gasanova
Ranking #213
UTR Rating 11,68 Pro
UTR Ranking #198
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 30,0000
rank_ratio 1,1630
log_rank_ratio 0,1510
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 49,0000
best_rank_diff -47,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -33,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,0007
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 34,3956
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8095
p1_surface_matches 3,0000
p2_surface_matches 3,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3400
p2_confidence 0,3400
combined_confidence 0,3400
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,5167
first_serve_won_diff -15,5000
second_serve_won_diff 3,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,1000
bp_converted_diff 18,8000
aces_per_match_diff -0,3333
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,9700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 87,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 58,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 4,6216
serve_consistency_p2 10,8347
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,0347
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1967
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1967
elite_surface_amplifier -33,3333
UTR
utr_diff -0,0200
utr_p1 0,4271
utr_p2 0,4294
utr_advantage -0,1718
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21366
API ID 15309852
Gamdom ID 569289
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21366,
    "api_id": 15309852,
    "gamdom_id": 569289,
    "player1": "Guiomar Maristany Zuleta de Reales",
    "player2": "Anastasia Gasanova",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-04T06:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.5714285714285714
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3405,
    "prob_p2": 0.6595,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6595,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 185,
      "utr_singles": 11.63,
      "utr_ranking": 204,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 213,
      "utr_singles": 11.68,
      "utr_ranking": 198,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.63,
      "ranking": 204,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.68,
      "ranking": 198,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4270588235294119,
    "utr_p2": 0.4294117647058824,
    "utr_diff": -0.019999999999999574,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1630434782608696,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 49,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.10000000000000853,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "p2_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -0.17182130584192074,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -47,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.15104025741286592,
    "rank_advantage": 30,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -33.33333333333333,
    "bp_converted_diff": 18.800000000000004,
    "p1_surface_matches": 3,
    "p2_surface_matches": 3,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.516666666666673,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "combined_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -15.500000000000007,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 4.621589927377278,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.834743839489748,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.03467524709553,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 34.395604395604394,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.809523809523796,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.970000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -33.33333333333333,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 87,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 58,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.19666666666666677,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.19666666666666655,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.000732600732595,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}