Mary Stoiana vs Alice Rame
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alice Rame
Mary …: 36,8% Alice …: 63,2%
¿Por qué Alice Rame?
UTR 11,77 vs 11,46 (+0,27) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mary … Alice … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,22 4,00 81,8%
Gamdom 1,12 5,40 89,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,71 1,58 36,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Mary …: -39,8% Alice …: +39,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mary Stoiana
Ranking #222
UTR Rating 11,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #173
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Alice Rame
Ranking #195
UTR Rating 11,46 Pro
UTR Ranking #280
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -31,0000
rank_ratio 0,8634
log_rank_ratio -0,1468
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -45,0000
best_rank_diff -31,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,1000
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 4,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 49,0000
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,3133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,9500
first_serve_won_diff -1,9000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 10,0000
bp_converted_diff 80,0000
aces_per_match_diff -3,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,1000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 51,0204
momentum_p2 28,0000
momentum_diff 23,0204
weighted_momentum_diff 22,3326
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 57,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 32,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 15,4128
serve_consistency_p2 9,1167
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,4690
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5310
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2700
utr_p1 0,4424
utr_p2 0,4106
utr_advantage 2,3226
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21370
API ID 15309855
Gamdom ID 569296
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21370,
    "api_id": 15309855,
    "gamdom_id": 569296,
    "player1": "Mary Stoiana",
    "player2": "Alice Rame",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-03T23:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2222222222222223,
      "p2": 4.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.12,
      "p2": 5.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.15,
      "p2": 5.06
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3684,
    "prob_p2": 0.6316,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6316,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 222,
      "utr_singles": 11.77,
      "utr_ranking": 173,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 195,
      "utr_singles": 11.46,
      "utr_ranking": 280,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.77,
      "ranking": 173,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.46,
      "ranking": 280,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.44235294117647056,
    "utr_p2": 0.4105882352941177,
    "utr_diff": 0.2699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8634361233480177,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 51.02040816326531,
    "momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -45,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 10.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.09999999999999998,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 23.020408163265305,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 2.3225806451612865,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -31,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1468353582508854,
    "rank_advantage": -31,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 80.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.949999999999996,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.8999999999999986,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 15.41283736226252,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.11665717017878,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 4.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 49.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.332632653061218,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 57,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 32,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.469,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.531,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.099999999999998,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}