Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Elvina Kalieva
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 09:25
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elvina Kalieva
Nuria …: 42,9% Elvina …: 57,1%
¿Por qué Elvina Kalieva?
UTR 11,38 vs 11,52 (+0,08) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Nuria … Elvina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,73 50,0%
Gamdom 1,97 1,75 50,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,33 1,75 42,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Nuria …: -3,5% Elvina …: +3,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
Ranking #261
UTR Rating 11,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #314
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 7/17 = 41,2%
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking #207
UTR Rating 11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #259
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 3/5 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -11,0000
rank_ratio 0,9491
log_rank_ratio -0,0523
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -16,0000
best_rank_diff 123,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -18,8235
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,2963
surface_matches_ratio 3,4000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,1765
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,8571
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,3492
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 5,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1765
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,3667
combined_confidence 0,4667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -9,7282
first_serve_won_diff -7,3941
second_serve_won_diff -10,7706
bp_saved_diff -15,8118
bp_converted_diff 12,0588
aces_per_match_diff -1,4000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -25,8700
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 132,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 29,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5926
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 14,3794
serve_consistency_p2 15,6310
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,9839
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0772
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0890
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0800
utr_p1 0,4165
utr_p2 0,4071
utr_advantage 0,6957
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21371
API ID 15309845
Gamdom ID 569290
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21371,
    "api_id": 15309845,
    "gamdom_id": 569290,
    "player1": "Nuria Parrizas Diaz",
    "player2": "Elvina Kalieva",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-04T05:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.7272727272727273
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.97,
      "p2": 1.75
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.03,
      "p2": 1.73
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4286,
    "prob_p2": 0.5714,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5714,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 261,
      "utr_singles": 11.38,
      "utr_ranking": 314,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.17647058823529,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 207,
      "utr_singles": 11.52,
      "utr_ranking": 259,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.38,
      "ranking": 314,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.52,
      "ranking": 259,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.41647058823529404,
    "utr_p2": 0.40705882352941186,
    "utr_diff": 0.0799999999999983,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9490740740740741,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -16,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -15.811764705882347,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.17647058823529,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.6956521739130287,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 123,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.05226842854575683,
    "rank_advantage": -11,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -18.82352941176471,
    "bp_converted_diff": 12.058823529411768,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 5,
    "serve_quality_diff": -9.728235294117646,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5925925925925926,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.4,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.39411764705882,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.17647058823529413,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.379416225405278,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.630975648954836,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.9838763020377758,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.34920634920635,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -10.77058823529412,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.4,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -25.870000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 132,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 29,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.07723529411764707,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08899999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.296296296296298,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}