Marina Stakusic vs Darja Vidmanova
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 07:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Darja Vidmanova
Marina …: 31,9% Darja …: 68,1%
¿Por qué Darja Vidmanova?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marina … Darja … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
Gamdom 1,85 2,00 54,1%
IA Fair Odds 3,13 1,47 31,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Marina …: -20,7% Darja …: +20,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marina Stakusic
Ranking #127
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #116
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 12/25 = 48,0%
Darja Vidmanova
Ranking #142
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 4/6 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 19,0000
rank_ratio 1,1462
log_rank_ratio 0,1364
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 85,0000
best_rank_diff 26,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -18,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,7304
surface_matches_ratio 4,1667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,0000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,2759
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,6667
p1_surface_matches 25,0000
p2_surface_matches 6,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0400
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8333
p2_confidence 0,3800
combined_confidence 0,6067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,4273
first_serve_won_diff -4,6080
second_serve_won_diff -7,7000
bp_saved_diff -14,6280
bp_converted_diff -1,2720
aces_per_match_diff -1,4067
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 32,6300
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 56,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,0978
serve_consistency_p2 12,6656
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,5464
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0390
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1857
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4682
utr_p2 0,4682
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21387
API ID 15309814
Gamdom ID 569267
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21387,
    "api_id": 15309814,
    "gamdom_id": 569267,
    "player1": "Marina Stakusic",
    "player2": "Darja Vidmanova",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T03:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.85,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 1.99
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3191,
    "prob_p2": 0.6809,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6809,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 127,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 116,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 25,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 142,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 6,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 116,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4682352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.4682352941176471,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.146153846153846,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 85,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -14.627999999999993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 29.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.38,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 26,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.13641185548987667,
    "rank_advantage": 19,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -18.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.2720000000000056,
    "p1_surface_matches": 25,
    "p2_surface_matches": 6,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.427333333333337,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.4066666666666665,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6066666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.608000000000004,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.04,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.0977829807901704,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.665595372533089,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.5463546358110296,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.275862068965516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.666666666666664,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.699999999999996,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.166666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 32.63000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 56,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.039000000000000035,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18566666666666654,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.730421455938696,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}