Lorenzo Sonego vs Rei Sakamoto
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 09:30
06 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 66,9%
Rei …: 33,1%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,42
(+1,18)
— Ligera ventaja
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Rei … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,47 | 2,70 | 68,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,49 | 3,02 | 66,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -3,2%
Rei …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking
#40
UTR Rating
15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking
#49
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/40 = 50,0%
Rei Sakamoto
Ranking
#203
UTR Rating
14,42 Pro
UTR Ranking
#193
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
27/48 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 144,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,6000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,5261 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 937,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 138,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -6,2500 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,7692 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,2500 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,7692 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 48,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,2846 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,0500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,7542 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,2708 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,5167 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,1417 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 21,4500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 57,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 51,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,4714 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,2876 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,8143 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -9,5379 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1440 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2065 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -12,5000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,1800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8871 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7482 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,8930 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21390
API ID
15310057
Gamdom ID
569433
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21390,
"api_id": 15310057,
"gamdom_id": 569433,
"player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
"player2": "Rei Sakamoto",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T05:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3599999999999999,
"p2": 3.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.7
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.47,
"p2": 2.64
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6693,
"prob_p2": 0.3307,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6693,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 40,
"utr_singles": 15.3,
"utr_ranking": 49,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 203,
"utr_singles": 14.42,
"utr_ranking": 193,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.25,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 48,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 49,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.42,
"ranking": 193,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.748235294117647,
"utr_diff": 1.1799999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 4.6,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 937,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.270833333333336,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 7.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
"utr_advantage": 7.892976588628761,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 138,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.5260563034950492,
"rank_advantage": 144,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -6.25,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.5166666666666657,
"p1_surface_matches": 40,
"p2_surface_matches": 48,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.2845833333333303,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.1416666666666657,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.0499999999999972,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.2875885703289165,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.81434245225771,
"surface_rank_synergy": -9.537851896844057,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.769230769230774,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.7541666666666629,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 21.45000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -12.5,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 57,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 51,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14400000000000002,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.20650000000000002,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.769230769230774,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}