Lorenzo Sonego vs Rei Sakamoto
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo …: 66,9% Rei …: 33,1%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Sonego?
UTR 15,30 vs 14,42 (+1,18) — Ligera ventaja
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Rei … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,20 73,5%
Gamdom 1,47 2,70 68,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,49 3,02 66,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -3,2% Rei …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking #40
UTR Rating 15,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #49
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/40 = 50,0%
Rei Sakamoto
Ranking #203
UTR Rating 14,42 Pro
UTR Ranking #193
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 27/48 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 144,0000
rank_ratio 4,6000
log_rank_ratio 1,5261
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 937,0000
best_rank_diff 138,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -6,2500
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,7692
surface_matches_ratio 0,8333
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,7692
p1_surface_matches 40,0000
p2_surface_matches 48,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,2846
first_serve_won_diff 1,0500
second_serve_won_diff -1,7542
bp_saved_diff 7,2708
bp_converted_diff -0,5167
aces_per_match_diff -1,1417
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 21,4500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 57,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 51,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,4714
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,3750
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 2,2876
serve_consistency_p2 9,8143
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -9,5379
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1440
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2065
elite_surface_amplifier -12,5000
UTR
utr_diff 1,1800
utr_p1 0,8871
utr_p2 0,7482
utr_advantage 7,8930
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21390
API ID 15310057
Gamdom ID 569433
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21390,
    "api_id": 15310057,
    "gamdom_id": 569433,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Sonego",
    "player2": "Rei Sakamoto",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3599999999999999,
      "p2": 3.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.7
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.64
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6693,
    "prob_p2": 0.3307,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6693,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 40,
      "utr_singles": 15.3,
      "utr_ranking": 49,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 203,
      "utr_singles": 14.42,
      "utr_ranking": 193,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 48,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.3,
      "ranking": 49,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.42,
      "ranking": 193,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8870588235294117,
    "utr_p2": 0.748235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 1.1799999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 4.6,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 937,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.270833333333336,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 7.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 56.25,
    "utr_advantage": 7.892976588628761,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 138,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.5260563034950492,
    "rank_advantage": 144,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -6.25,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.5166666666666657,
    "p1_surface_matches": 40,
    "p2_surface_matches": 48,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.2845833333333303,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.47136563876652,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1416666666666657,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.0499999999999972,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.2875885703289165,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.81434245225771,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -9.537851896844057,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.769230769230774,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.7541666666666629,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 21.45000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -12.5,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 57,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 51,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14400000000000002,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.20650000000000002,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.769230769230774,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}