Alejandro Tabilo vs Luca Van Assche
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alejandro Tabilo
Alejandro …: 68,1% Luca …: 31,9%
¿Por qué Alejandro Tabilo?
UTR 15,06 vs 14,81 (+0,45) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alejandro … Luca … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,53 2,38 65,2%
Gamdom 1,54 2,33 64,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,47 3,13 68,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Alejandro …: +7,3% Luca …: -7,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alejandro Tabilo
Ranking #79
UTR Rating 15,06 Pro
UTR Ranking #85
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/28 = 53,6%
Luca Van Assche
Ranking #165
UTR Rating 14,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #108
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 13/26 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 84,0000
rank_ratio 2,0244
log_rank_ratio 0,7053
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 365,0000
best_rank_diff 44,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,5714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,8125
surface_matches_ratio 1,0769
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,5714
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,1250
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0714
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 10,4615
first_serve_won_diff 4,0621
second_serve_won_diff -1,5505
bp_saved_diff 14,6648
bp_converted_diff -9,1231
aces_per_match_diff 4,4478
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,8770
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 60,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 60,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7586
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3750
serve_consistency_p1 5,3597
serve_consistency_p2 9,0446
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,5188
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0483
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0840
elite_surface_amplifier 3,5714
UTR
utr_diff 0,4500
utr_p1 0,8447
utr_p2 0,7918
utr_advantage 3,0090
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21393
API ID 15310686
Gamdom ID 569749
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21393,
    "api_id": 15310686,
    "gamdom_id": 569749,
    "player1": "Alejandro Tabilo",
    "player2": "Luca Van Assche",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-04T04:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5333333333333332,
      "p2": 2.375
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.54,
      "p2": 2.33
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.54,
      "p2": 2.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6806,
    "prob_p2": 0.3194,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6806,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 79,
      "utr_singles": 15.06,
      "utr_ranking": 85,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.57142857142857,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 165,
      "utr_singles": 14.81,
      "utr_ranking": 108,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.06,
      "ranking": 85,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.81,
      "ranking": 108,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8447058823529412,
    "utr_p2": 0.791764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.4499999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 2.024390243902439,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 365,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 14.664835164835168,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.57142857142857,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 3.0090270812437265,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 44,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7052685410922901,
    "rank_advantage": 84,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.5714285714285694,
    "bp_converted_diff": -9.123076923076923,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": 10.461483516483518,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7586206896551724,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.447802197802198,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.062087912087904,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07142857142857142,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.359689920423528,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.044580917113153,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.518816218186749,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.125,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.550549450549454,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0769230769230769,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.8770000000000095,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 3.5714285714285694,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 60,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.048285714285714376,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08400000000000007,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.8125,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}