Elias Ymer vs Laslo Djere
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elias …: 79,9%
Laslo …: 20,1%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,20 vs 15,11
(-1,12)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Elias … | Laslo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,44 | 38,1% |
| Gamdom | 2,65 | 1,42 | 37,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,25 | 4,97 | 79,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Elias …: +44,4%
Laslo …: -44,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elias Ymer
Ranking
#175
UTR Rating
14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking
#284
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/28 = 64,3%
Laslo Djere
Ranking
#92
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
4/12 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -75,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5665 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5683 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -315,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -78,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 30,9524 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 17,4167 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,3333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 37,5000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6967 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,6763 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,9821 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4905 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,0417 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,6060 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,3810 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 40,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 26,9510 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 49,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 61,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5385 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6881 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,3983 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -17,5910 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2179 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2417 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7224 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_advantage | -7,6190 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21394
API ID
15310684
Gamdom ID
569748
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21394,
"api_id": 15310684,
"gamdom_id": 569748,
"player1": "Elias Ymer",
"player2": "Laslo Djere",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-04T04:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.625,
"p2": 1.4444444444444444
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.42
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.67,
"p2": 1.44
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7988,
"prob_p2": 0.2012,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7988,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 175,
"utr_singles": 14.2,
"utr_ranking": 284,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 92,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.2,
"ranking": 284,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7223529411764706,
"utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
"utr_diff": -1.1199999999999992,
"rank_ratio": 0.5664739884393064,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -315,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.0416666666666714,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 40.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.46,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
"utr_advantage": -7.619047619047614,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -78,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.568324115827207,
"rank_advantage": -75,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 30.952380952380963,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.605952380952374,
"p1_surface_matches": 28,
"p2_surface_matches": 12,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.6763095238095218,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.3809523809523814,
"combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.9821428571428612,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.688110876587018,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.398285390454564,
"surface_rank_synergy": -17.590984537508795,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.5,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.490476190476194,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.3333333333333335,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 26.951000000000008,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 49,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21785714285714286,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.2416666666666667,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.416666666666668,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}