Elias Ymer vs Laslo Djere
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elias Ymer
Elias …: 79,9% Laslo …: 20,1%
¿Por qué Elias Ymer?
UTR 14,20 vs 15,11 (-1,12) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elias … Laslo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,44 38,1%
Gamdom 2,65 1,42 37,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,25 4,97 79,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Elias …: +44,4% Laslo …: -44,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elias Ymer
Ranking #175
UTR Rating 14,20 Pro
UTR Ranking #284
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/28 = 64,3%
Laslo Djere
Ranking #92
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 4/12 = 33,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -75,0000
rank_ratio 0,5665
log_rank_ratio -0,5683
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -315,0000
best_rank_diff -78,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 30,9524
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,4167
surface_matches_ratio 2,3333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 33,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 37,5000
p1_surface_matches 28,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9333
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,6967
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,6763
first_serve_won_diff 1,9821
second_serve_won_diff 1,4905
bp_saved_diff -3,0417
bp_converted_diff 7,6060
aces_per_match_diff -0,3810
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 26,9510
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 49,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 61,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5385
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 6,6881
serve_consistency_p2 5,3983
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -17,5910
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2179
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,2417
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,1200
utr_p1 0,7224
utr_p2 0,8541
utr_advantage -7,6190
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21394
API ID 15310684
Gamdom ID 569748
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21394,
    "api_id": 15310684,
    "gamdom_id": 569748,
    "player1": "Elias Ymer",
    "player2": "Laslo Djere",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-04T04:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.625,
      "p2": 1.4444444444444444
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.67,
      "p2": 1.44
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7988,
    "prob_p2": 0.2012,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7988,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 175,
      "utr_singles": 14.2,
      "utr_ranking": 284,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 92,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.2,
      "ranking": 284,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7223529411764706,
    "utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -1.1199999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5664739884393064,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -315,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.0416666666666714,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 33.33333333333333,
    "utr_advantage": -7.619047619047614,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -78,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.568324115827207,
    "rank_advantage": -75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5384615384615384,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 30.952380952380963,
    "bp_converted_diff": 7.605952380952374,
    "p1_surface_matches": 28,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.6763095238095218,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.3809523809523814,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6966666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.9821428571428612,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.688110876587018,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.398285390454564,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -17.590984537508795,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 37.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.490476190476194,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.3333333333333335,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 26.951000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 49,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.21785714285714286,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.2416666666666667,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.416666666666668,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}