Yi Zhou vs Francesco Maestrelli
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Yi …: 49,2%
Francesco …: 50,8%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,54 vs 14,34
(+0,15)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Yi … | Francesco … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,62 | 2,20 | 61,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,63 | 2,14 | 61,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,03 | 1,97 | 49,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Yi …: -8,4%
Francesco …: +8,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yi Zhou
Ranking
#238
UTR Rating
14,54 Pro
UTR Ranking
#157
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
38% (8p)
WR Hard
21/41 = 51,2%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking
#141
UTR Rating
14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking
#224
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -111,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5560 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5870 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -222,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -112,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -14,1651 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -11,4074 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5769 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 51,2195 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,3846 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 51,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0244 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,2071 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,4538 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,5769 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,3615 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 4,5231 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,7036 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -44,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -32,5660 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 93,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 64,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5263 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7143 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,4196 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,0211 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,3147 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1232 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0428 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7635 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7459 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,0406 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21395
API ID
15310687
Gamdom ID
569747
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21395,
"api_id": 15310687,
"gamdom_id": 569747,
"player1": "Yi Zhou",
"player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-04T04:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.6153846153846154,
"p2": 2.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.63,
"p2": 2.14
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.65,
"p2": 2.17
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4922,
"prob_p2": 0.5078,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5078,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 238,
"utr_singles": 14.54,
"utr_ranking": 157,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.21951219512195,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 37.5,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 141,
"utr_singles": 14.34,
"utr_ranking": 224,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.54,
"ranking": 157,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.34,
"ranking": 224,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
"utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
"rank_ratio": 0.556,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 52.0,
"points_diff": -222,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.3615384615384514,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -44.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 51.21951219512195,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
"utr_advantage": 1.0405827263267455,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -112,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5869869847315546,
"rank_advantage": -111,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -14.165103189493436,
"bp_converted_diff": 4.523076923076928,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.2071294559099357,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.7035647279549719,
"combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.4538461538461576,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.024390243902439025,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.419569925426908,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.021071817800916,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.314731209612079,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.11111111111111,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.576923076923066,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5769230769230769,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -32.56600000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 93,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 64,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12319512195121951,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04284615384615387,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.407407407407407,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}