Yi Zhou vs Francesco Maestrelli
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Qualification Round 1
04 Ene 2026, 08:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesco Maestrelli
Yi …: 49,2% Francesco …: 50,8%
¿Por qué Francesco Maestrelli?
UTR 14,54 vs 14,34 (+0,15) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yi … Francesco … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,20 61,9%
Gamdom 1,63 2,14 61,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,03 1,97 49,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Yi …: -8,4% Francesco …: +8,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yi Zhou
Ranking #238
UTR Rating 14,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #157
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 38% (8p)
WR Hard 21/41 = 51,2%
Francesco Maestrelli
Ranking #141
UTR Rating 14,34 Pro
UTR Ranking #224
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/26 = 65,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -111,0000
rank_ratio 0,5560
log_rank_ratio -0,5870
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -222,0000
best_rank_diff -112,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,1651
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,4074
surface_matches_ratio 1,5769
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,2195
surface_wr_p2 65,3846
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,1111
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,3333
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0244
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,2071
first_serve_won_diff 1,4538
second_serve_won_diff 1,5769
bp_saved_diff 1,3615
bp_converted_diff 4,5231
aces_per_match_diff -0,7036
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -44,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -32,5660
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 93,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 64,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5263
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7143
serve_consistency_p1 7,4196
serve_consistency_p2 5,0211
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 8,3147
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1232
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0428
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1500
utr_p1 0,7635
utr_p2 0,7459
utr_advantage 1,0406
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21395
API ID 15310687
Gamdom ID 569747
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21395,
    "api_id": 15310687,
    "gamdom_id": 569747,
    "player1": "Yi Zhou",
    "player2": "Francesco Maestrelli",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-04T04:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.63,
      "p2": 2.14
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.65,
      "p2": 2.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4922,
    "prob_p2": 0.5078,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5078,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 238,
      "utr_singles": 14.54,
      "utr_ranking": 157,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.21951219512195,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 37.5,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 141,
      "utr_singles": 14.34,
      "utr_ranking": 224,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.38461538461539,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.54,
      "ranking": 157,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.34,
      "ranking": 224,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7635294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.7458823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 0.15000000000000036,
    "rank_ratio": 0.556,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -222,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.3615384615384514,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -44.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.21951219512195,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.38461538461539,
    "utr_advantage": 1.0405827263267455,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -112,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5869869847315546,
    "rank_advantage": -111,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7142857142857143,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.165103189493436,
    "bp_converted_diff": 4.523076923076928,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.2071294559099357,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.7035647279549719,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.4538461538461576,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.024390243902439025,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.419569925426908,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.021071817800916,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 8.314731209612079,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.11111111111111,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.33333333333333,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.576923076923066,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5769230769230769,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -32.56600000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 93,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 64,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12319512195121951,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.04284615384615387,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.407407407407407,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}