Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Lilli Tagger
Auckland | Hard | Qualification Final
04 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lilli Tagger
Yuliia …: 35,6% Lilli …: 64,5%
¿Por qué Lilli Tagger?
UTR 12,00 vs 11,89 (-0,04) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Yuliia … Lilli … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,62 45,5%
Gamdom 2,14 1,63 46,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,81 1,55 35,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Yuliia …: -6,8% Lilli …: +6,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Ranking #110
UTR Rating 12,00 Pro
UTR Ranking #106
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 10/27 = 37,0%
Lilli Tagger
Ranking #155
UTR Rating 11,89 Junior
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 46,0000
rank_ratio 1,4071
log_rank_ratio 0,3415
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 233,0000
best_rank_diff 89,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,1058
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,7444
surface_matches_ratio 3,8571
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 37,0370
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 38,7097
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,6467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,3457
first_serve_won_diff -2,4000
second_serve_won_diff 3,8000
bp_saved_diff -7,0000
bp_converted_diff 6,9000
aces_per_match_diff -2,1429
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -22,0850
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4333
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,0575
serve_consistency_p2 4,8054
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -6,8665
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1756
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1174
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0400
utr_p1 0,4541
utr_p2 0,4588
utr_advantage -0,3367
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21402
API ID 15310384
Gamdom ID 569679
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21402,
    "api_id": 15310384,
    "gamdom_id": 569679,
    "player1": "Yuliia Starodubtseva",
    "player2": "Lilli Tagger",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-04T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.14,
      "p2": 1.63
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.16,
      "p2": 1.66
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3555,
    "prob_p2": 0.6445,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6445,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 110,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 106,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 37.03703703703704,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 155,
      "utr_singles": 11.89,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 106,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.89,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45411764705882346,
    "utr_p2": 0.45882352941176474,
    "utr_diff": -0.040000000000000924,
    "rank_ratio": 1.407079646017699,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 233,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -27.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 37.03703703703704,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": -0.3367003367003445,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 89,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.34151638350789093,
    "rank_advantage": 46,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.1058201058201,
    "bp_converted_diff": 6.899999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.34571428571428,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.43333333333333335,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.142857142857143,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.4000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.057547331694859,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.805372023755225,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -6.866466969999922,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.70967741935484,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.8000000000000043,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.857142857142857,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -22.085000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17562962962962964,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.11742857142857144,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.744365312107243,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}