Elina Svitolina vs Varvara Gracheva
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 09:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elina Svitolina
Elina …: 78,1% Varvara …: 21,9%
¿Por qué Elina Svitolina?
UTR 12,66 vs 12,08 (+0,62) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elina … Varvara … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,25 4,00 80,0%
Gamdom 1,24 4,10 80,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,57 78,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Elina …: +1,9% Varvara …: -1,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elina Svitolina
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 12,66 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 17/27 = 63,0%
Varvara Gracheva
Ranking #77
UTR Rating 12,08 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 18/32 = 56,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 62,0000
rank_ratio 5,4286
log_rank_ratio 1,6917
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1719,0000
best_rank_diff 36,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,7130
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,4480
surface_matches_ratio 0,8438
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,9630
surface_wr_p2 56,2500
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,2903
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,5556
p1_surface_matches 27,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2593
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,8373
first_serve_won_diff 10,2053
second_serve_won_diff -5,9000
bp_saved_diff 4,3455
bp_converted_diff 0,4166
aces_per_match_diff 1,2523
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -48,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -37,6350
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 131,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 73,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9645
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5867
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2000
serve_consistency_p1 10,6966
serve_consistency_p2 11,2329
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,3562
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0676
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1245
elite_surface_amplifier 13,4259
UTR
utr_diff 0,6200
utr_p1 0,5518
utr_p2 0,4788
utr_advantage 5,0081
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21416
API ID 15310815
Gamdom ID 569794
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21416,
    "api_id": 15310815,
    "gamdom_id": 569794,
    "player1": "Elina Svitolina",
    "player2": "Varvara Gracheva",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T05:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.25,
      "p2": 4.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.24,
      "p2": 4.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 4.15
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.781,
    "prob_p2": 0.219,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.781,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 12.66,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.96296296296296,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 77,
      "utr_singles": 12.08,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.25,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.66,
      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.08,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.47882352941176476,
    "utr_diff": 0.6199999999999992,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1719,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.345486111111114,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -47.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.96296296296296,
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    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.6916760106710724,
    "rank_advantage": 62,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.16666666666666666,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.712962962962962,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.41655092592591814,
    "p1_surface_matches": 27,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.8372916666666725,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9645390070921985,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5866666666666667,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.2523148148148149,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.205324074074078,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25925925925925924,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.696551889338458,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.232904023306205,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.356158404967845,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.29032258064516,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.55555555555556,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.899999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.84375,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -37.63500000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 13.425925925925924,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 131,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 73,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0676296296296296,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.12450000000000006,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.448028673835123,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}