Francesca Jones vs Emma Navarro
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 09:55
05 Ene 2026, 09:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Francesca …: 42,8%
Emma …: 57,2%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,31
(-0,21)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Francesca … | Emma … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,20 | 22,2% |
| Gamdom | 4,00 | 1,25 | 25,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,34 | 1,75 | 42,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Francesca …: +21,7%
Emma …: -21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francesca Jones
Ranking
#71
UTR Rating
12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#61
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
11/17 = 64,7%
Emma Navarro
Ranking
#15
UTR Rating
12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking
#41
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -58,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2055 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,5824 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1603,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -63,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 7,1301 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,0326 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5152 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,5758 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,9048 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,7568 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2941 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,7812 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,4337 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,2337 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,1952 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,1439 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,5971 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -30,9500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 67,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 89,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3913 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6980 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6155 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,8211 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -11,2828 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2051 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0178 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4894 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5141 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,7122 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21417
API ID
15310804
Gamdom ID
569792
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21417,
"api_id": 15310804,
"gamdom_id": 569792,
"player1": "Francesca Jones",
"player2": "Emma Navarro",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T05:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.0,
"p2": 1.25
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.07,
"p2": 1.24
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4276,
"prob_p2": 0.5724,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5724,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 71,
"utr_singles": 12.16,
"utr_ranking": 61,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 15,
"utr_singles": 12.31,
"utr_ranking": 41,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
"wr_surface_wins": 19,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.16,
"ranking": 61,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.31,
"ranking": 41,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
"utr_diff": -0.20999999999999908,
"rank_ratio": 0.2054794520547945,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -1603,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.195187165775401,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -20.000000000000004,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
"utr_advantage": -1.712189156135337,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -63,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.582409240046181,
"rank_advantage": -58,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 7.130124777183596,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.14385026737968332,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.781247771836007,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.391304347826087,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.5971479500891264,
"combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.433689839572196,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.615510375388911,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.8211201210176755,
"surface_rank_synergy": -11.282775330097541,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.233689839572186,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5151515151515151,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -30.950000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 67,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 89,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20505882352941174,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.01775757575757575,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.0326040326040316,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}