Francesca Jones vs Emma Navarro
Auckland | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 09:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Emma Navarro
Francesca …: 42,8% Emma …: 57,2%
¿Por qué Emma Navarro?
UTR 12,16 vs 12,31 (-0,21) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Francesca … Emma … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,50 1,20 22,2%
Gamdom 4,00 1,25 25,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,34 1,75 42,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Francesca …: +21,7% Emma …: -21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Francesca Jones
Ranking #71
UTR Rating 12,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #61
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 11/17 = 64,7%
Emma Navarro
Ranking #15
UTR Rating 12,31 Pro
UTR Ranking #41
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 19/33 = 57,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -58,0000
rank_ratio 0,2055
log_rank_ratio -1,5824
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1603,0000
best_rank_diff -63,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,1301
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,0326
surface_matches_ratio 0,5152
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,7059
surface_wr_p2 57,5758
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,9048
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,7568
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2941
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,7812
first_serve_won_diff 4,4337
second_serve_won_diff 1,2337
bp_saved_diff 9,1952
bp_converted_diff -0,1439
aces_per_match_diff 0,5971
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 10,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff -20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -30,9500
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 67,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 89,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3913
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6980
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 6,6155
serve_consistency_p2 7,8211
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -11,2828
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2051
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0178
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2100
utr_p1 0,4894
utr_p2 0,5141
utr_advantage -1,7122
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21417
API ID 15310804
Gamdom ID 569792
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21417,
    "api_id": 15310804,
    "gamdom_id": 569792,
    "player1": "Francesca Jones",
    "player2": "Emma Navarro",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-05T05:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.5,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.0,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 4.07,
      "p2": 1.24
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4276,
    "prob_p2": 0.5724,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5724,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 71,
      "utr_singles": 12.16,
      "utr_ranking": 61,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.70588235294117,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 15,
      "utr_singles": 12.31,
      "utr_ranking": 41,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.57575757575758,
      "wr_surface_wins": 19,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.16,
      "ranking": 61,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.31,
      "ranking": 41,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5141176470588235,
    "utr_diff": -0.20999999999999908,
    "rank_ratio": 0.2054794520547945,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 10.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -1603,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.195187165775401,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -20.000000000000004,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.70588235294117,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.57575757575758,
    "utr_advantage": -1.712189156135337,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -63,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.582409240046181,
    "rank_advantage": -58,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.130124777183596,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.14385026737968332,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.781247771836007,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.391304347826087,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6979591836734694,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5971479500891264,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.433689839572196,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.29411764705882354,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.615510375388911,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.8211201210176755,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -11.282775330097541,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.904761904761905,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.75675675675676,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.233689839572186,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5151515151515151,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -30.950000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 67,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 89,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.20505882352941174,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.01775757575757575,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.0326040326040316,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}