Victoria Mboko vs Elise Mertens
United Cup | Hard |
06 Ene 2026, 05:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Victoria Mboko
Victoria …: 58,3% Elise …: 41,7%
¿Por qué Victoria Mboko?
UTR 12,62 vs 12,45 (+0,17) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Victoria … Elise … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,9%
Gamdom 1,62 2,30 61,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,72 2,40 58,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Victoria …: -0,5% Elise …: +0,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Victoria Mboko
Ranking #16
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #13
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 20/26 = 76,9%
Elise Mertens
Ranking #21
UTR Rating 12,45 Pro
UTR Ranking #27
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 2,0000
rank_ratio 1,1111
log_rank_ratio 0,1054
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 188,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 21,7507
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 17,2222
surface_matches_ratio 0,8966
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 76,9231
surface_wr_p2 55,1724
surface_wr_p1_stable 73,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 26,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,5385
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,8667
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9167
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,1433
first_serve_won_diff 0,2923
second_serve_won_diff 4,1462
bp_saved_diff 6,2077
bp_converted_diff 9,4077
aces_per_match_diff 0,8767
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 16,6650
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3667
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 5,0763
serve_consistency_p2 10,0670
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,2917
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2672
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0537
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,1700
utr_p1 0,5424
utr_p2 0,5224
utr_advantage 1,3573
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21440
API ID 15141981
Gamdom ID 479635
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21440,
    "api_id": 15141981,
    "gamdom_id": 479635,
    "player1": "Victoria Mboko",
    "player2": "Elise Mertens",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-06T01:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6153846153846154,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.61,
      "p2": 2.28
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5826,
    "prob_p2": 0.4174,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5826,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 16,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 13,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 76.92307692307693,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 21,
      "utr_singles": 12.45,
      "utr_ranking": 27,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 13,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.45,
      "ranking": 27,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5423529411764705,
    "utr_p2": 0.5223529411764706,
    "utr_diff": 0.16999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1111111111111112,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": 188,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.207692307692312,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 31.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 76.92307692307693,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
    "utr_advantage": 1.3572854291417162,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.10536051565782635,
    "rank_advantage": 2,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.125,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 21.75066312997349,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.407692307692315,
    "p1_surface_matches": 26,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.1433156498673753,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.36666666666666664,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8181818181818182,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.8766578249336865,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9166666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.2923076923077019,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.5384615384615384,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.076281908558407,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.067033774218348,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.291661083273678,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 73.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.146153846153851,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.896551724137931,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 16.664999999999992,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2672307692307694,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05372413793103448,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 17.222222222222225,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}