Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
United Cup | Hard |
06 Ene 2026, 12:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alex …: 63,8% Jakub …: 36,2%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,89 vs 15,40 (+0,55) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alex … Jakub … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,20 73,3%
Gamdom 1,32 3,45 75,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,57 2,77 63,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Alex …: -6,3% Jakub …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Jakub Mensik
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #37
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 12,0000
rank_ratio 2,7143
log_rank_ratio 0,9985
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1930,0000
best_rank_diff 10,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,4091
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,3804
surface_matches_ratio 1,7188
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 70,9091
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,4915
surface_wr_p2_stable 61,1111
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4182
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -18,6512
first_serve_won_diff -5,0116
second_serve_won_diff 7,0986
bp_saved_diff -3,0914
bp_converted_diff 8,9736
aces_per_match_diff -9,1375
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 20,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,6350
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 77,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 2,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8100
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1710
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5882
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6190
serve_consistency_p1 6,9491
serve_consistency_p2 3,5529
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 8,3967
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1971
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1370
elite_surface_amplifier 8,4091
UTR
utr_diff 0,5500
utr_p1 0,9376
utr_p2 0,8729
utr_advantage 3,5043
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21445
API ID 15141980
Gamdom ID 479640
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21445,
    "api_id": 15141980,
    "gamdom_id": 479640,
    "player1": "Alex de Minaur",
    "player2": "Jakub Mensik",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-06T08:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3636363636363638,
      "p2": 3.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.45
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.43
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6384,
    "prob_p2": 0.3616,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6384,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 15.4,
      "utr_ranking": 37,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.4,
      "ranking": 37,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_diff": 0.5500000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 2.7142857142857144,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 20.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 1930,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.0913636363636385,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 70.9090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": 3.5043007327174305,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 10,
    "h2h_on_surface": 2,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.9985288301111273,
    "rank_advantage": 12,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5882352941176471,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6190476190476191,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.409090909090907,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.973636363636363,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -18.651204545454547,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.81,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1709844559585492,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -9.1375,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.0115909090908985,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.41818181818181815,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.94908521179416,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.5529482973659303,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 8.39671970775266,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.098636363636366,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.71875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.635000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 8.409090909090907,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 77,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.1970909090909091,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.137,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.380414312617702,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}