Kotaro Mochizuki vs Toshiki Karigyo
UTR Yokohama M01 | Hard |
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Toshiki Karigyo
Kotaro …: 50,0% Toshiki …: 50,0%
¿Por qué Toshiki Karigyo?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,50 (-0,41) — Niveles similares
Kotaro …
W51-L29
64% WR
vs UTR 11,7
L1
Toshiki …
W32-L23
58% WR
vs UTR 11,9
L1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Kotaro … Toshiki … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 60,0%
Gamdom 1,54 2,17 64,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,00 2,00 50,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Kotaro …: -5,8% Toshiki …: +5,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Kotaro Mochizuki
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #1867
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Toshiki Karigyo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #1540
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 57% (7p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Kotaro Mochizuki
Record 2025 51W - 29L (64%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,7
Últimos 5:
L W W W W
Toshiki Karigyo
Record 2025 32W - 23L (58%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,9
Últimos 5:
L W W L W
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 90,0000
momentum_diff -32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -24,0000
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 8,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 15,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,1890
serve_consistency_p2 5,1774
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4100
utr_p1 0,4706
utr_p2 0,5188
utr_advantage -3,3593
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21545
API ID 15306236
Gamdom ID 567177
Torneo UTR Yokohama M01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21545,
    "api_id": 15306236,
    "gamdom_id": 567177,
    "player1": "Kotaro Mochizuki",
    "player2": "Toshiki Karigyo",
    "tournament": "UTR Yokohama M01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-06T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.6666666666666665,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.54,
      "p2": 2.17
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5,
    "prob_p2": 0.5,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 1867,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 51,
      "utr_v4_losses": 29,
      "utr_v4_wr": 63.74999999999999,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.69,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.97,
          "opponent_name": "Ryotaro Matsumura"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Taiyo Hirano"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Yamato Nishiyama"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Shotaro Kashiwagi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Taki Adachi"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:12.399437+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 1540,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 32,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 58.18181818181818,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.92,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.78,
          "opponent_name": "Makoto Ochi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Seonyong Han"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.11,
          "opponent_name": "Bang Shuo Yin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.32,
          "opponent_name": "Dong Ju Kim"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Genki Fukushima"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:51.856470+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 57.14285714285714,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 1867,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 1540,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.41000000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -31.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -3.3592789840229424,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.189000576454513,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.177427327600211,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -24.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 8,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 15,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}