Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka
United Cup | Hard |
04 Ene 2026, 08:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Katie …: 13,1% Naomi …: 86,9%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 11,60 vs 12,60 (-1,03) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Katie … Naomi … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 7,62 1,15 13,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Katie Swan
Ranking #269
UTR Rating 11,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #214
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Naomi Osaka
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -260,0000
rank_ratio 0,0580
log_rank_ratio -2,8478
rank_tier_advantage -4,0000
points_diff -2234,0000
best_rank_diff -117,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -74,1935
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -46,4286
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 74,1935
surface_wr_p1_stable 0,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,4286
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -65,9697
first_serve_won_diff -73,4000
second_serve_won_diff -55,2000
bp_saved_diff -57,9000
bp_converted_diff -51,4000
aces_per_match_diff -6,3548
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 52,0000
momentum_diff -52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -45,5300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 193,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0777
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 13,3374
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 211,2893
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2400
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0181
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,0300
utr_p1 0,4200
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage -8,5230
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21639
API ID 15313232
Gamdom ID -
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21639,
    "api_id": 15313232,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Katie Swan",
    "player2": "Naomi Osaka",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-04T04:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 7.08,
      "p2": 1.09
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1312,
    "prob_p2": 0.8688,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8688,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 269,
      "utr_singles": 11.6,
      "utr_ranking": 214,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.6,
      "ranking": 214,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.42000000000000004,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -1.0299999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 0.057971014492753624,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 52.0,
    "points_diff": -2234,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -57.9,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
    "utr_advantage": -8.52296235002068,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -117,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.847812143477369,
    "rank_advantage": -260,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -74.19354838709677,
    "bp_converted_diff": -51.4,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -65.96967741935484,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.077720207253886,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -6.354838709677419,
    "combined_confidence": 0.65,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -73.4,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.337377653395608,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 211.28928806444992,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -55.2,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -45.53,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 193,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.01806451612903237,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -46.42857142857143,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}