Karolina Muchova vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 12:20
06 Ene 2026, 12:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karolina Muchova
Karolina …: 66,2%
Ajla …: 33,8%
¿Por qué Karolina Muchova?
UTR 12,57 vs 12,26
(+0,34)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Karolina … | Ajla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,34 | 3,40 | 74,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,51 | 2,96 | 66,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Karolina …: -4,0%
Ajla …: +4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking
#19
UTR Rating
12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#18
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
24/37 = 64,9%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking
#78
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#54
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 61,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,2105 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4376 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1152,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 24,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 13,0130 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 11,2116 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3704 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,8649 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,8519 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,6129 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2973 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,4693 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,1297 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,3946 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 7,9351 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,0919 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,4114 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -0,4760 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 73,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0982 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5288 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5455 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,6840 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,2882 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 18,7073 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0876 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0795 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 26,0260 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5376 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4976 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,7419 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21645
API ID
15302212
Gamdom ID
564700
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21645,
"api_id": 15302212,
"gamdom_id": 564700,
"player1": "Karolina Muchova",
"player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T08:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3599999999999999,
"p2": 3.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.34,
"p2": 3.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.28
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6622,
"prob_p2": 0.3378,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6622,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 19,
"utr_singles": 12.57,
"utr_ranking": 18,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 78,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 54,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.57,
"ranking": 18,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.26,
"ranking": 54,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.5376470588235295,
"utr_p2": 0.49764705882352944,
"utr_diff": 0.33999999999999986,
"rank_ratio": 4.2105263157894735,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 1152,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 7.935135135135134,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -10.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
"utr_advantage": 2.741935483870966,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 24,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.4375876555074412,
"rank_advantage": 61,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 13.013013013013023,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.091891891891898,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.4693093093093097,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.4114114114114118,
"combined_confidence": 0.95,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.129729729729732,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.684003710767171,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.288216402718158,
"surface_rank_synergy": 18.707346868465216,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.3945945945946008,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3703703703703705,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -0.4759999999999991,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 26.026026026026045,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 73,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08764864864864874,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07951851851851843,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.211644374508264,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}