Karolina Muchova vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 12:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karolina Muchova
Karolina …: 66,2% Ajla …: 33,8%
¿Por qué Karolina Muchova?
UTR 12,57 vs 12,26 (+0,34) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Karolina … Ajla … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,36 3,20 73,5%
Gamdom 1,34 3,40 74,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,51 2,96 66,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Karolina …: -4,0% Ajla …: +4,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Karolina Muchova
Ranking #19
UTR Rating 12,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #18
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/37 = 64,9%
Ajla Tomljanovic
Ranking #78
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #54
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 14/27 = 51,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 61,0000
rank_ratio 4,2105
log_rank_ratio 1,4376
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1152,0000
best_rank_diff 24,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 13,0130
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 11,2116
surface_matches_ratio 1,3704
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,8649
surface_wr_p2 51,8519
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,4146
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,6129
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2973
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,9500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,4693
first_serve_won_diff 2,1297
second_serve_won_diff -1,3946
bp_saved_diff 7,9351
bp_converted_diff -8,0919
aces_per_match_diff 1,4114
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -0,4760
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 73,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0982
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5288
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,6840
serve_consistency_p2 6,2882
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 18,7073
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0876
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0795
elite_surface_amplifier 26,0260
UTR
utr_diff 0,3400
utr_p1 0,5376
utr_p2 0,4976
utr_advantage 2,7419
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21645
API ID 15302212
Gamdom ID 564700
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21645,
    "api_id": 15302212,
    "gamdom_id": 564700,
    "player1": "Karolina Muchova",
    "player2": "Ajla Tomljanovic",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T08:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3599999999999999,
      "p2": 3.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.34,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.28
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6622,
    "prob_p2": 0.3378,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6622,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 19,
      "utr_singles": 12.57,
      "utr_ranking": 18,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.86486486486487,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 78,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 54,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.85185185185185,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.57,
      "ranking": 18,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 54,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5376470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.49764705882352944,
    "utr_diff": 0.33999999999999986,
    "rank_ratio": 4.2105263157894735,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 1152,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 7.935135135135134,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -10.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.86486486486487,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.85185185185185,
    "utr_advantage": 2.741935483870966,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 24,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.4375876555074412,
    "rank_advantage": 61,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 13.013013013013023,
    "bp_converted_diff": -8.091891891891898,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.4693093093093097,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.098159509202454,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5288461538461539,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.4114114114114118,
    "combined_confidence": 0.95,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 2.129729729729732,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2972972972972973,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.684003710767171,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.288216402718158,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 18.707346868465216,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.61290322580645,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.3945945945946008,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3703703703703705,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -0.4759999999999991,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 26.026026026026045,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 73,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08764864864864874,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07951851851851843,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 11.211644374508264,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}