McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
McCartney …: 27,8% Madison …: 72,2%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,39 vs 12,50 (-0,07) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente McCartney … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,50 38,0%
Gamdom 2,27 1,67 44,1%
IA Fair Odds 3,60 1,38 27,8%
Edge vs Mercado: McCartney …: -8,5% Madison …: +8,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
McCartney Kessler
Ranking #37
UTR Rating 12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 27/42 = 64,3%
Madison Keys
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -24,0000
rank_ratio 0,2258
log_rank_ratio -1,4881
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2777,0000
best_rank_diff -25,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -10,7143
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -9,1787
surface_matches_ratio 1,3125
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 64,2857
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,0435
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2857
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,2852
first_serve_won_diff -2,6000
second_serve_won_diff -1,9250
bp_saved_diff -1,2375
bp_converted_diff 0,9562
aces_per_match_diff -2,7039
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 2,0000
momentum_diff 60,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 49,4600
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 63,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7901
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7788
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 5,4339
serve_consistency_p2 8,7653
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 15,9437
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1669
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2260
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0700
utr_p1 0,5176
utr_p2 0,5259
utr_advantage -0,5629
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21646
API ID 15302210
Gamdom ID 564701
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21646,
    "api_id": 15302210,
    "gamdom_id": 564701,
    "player1": "McCartney Kessler",
    "player2": "Madison Keys",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.63,
      "p2": 1.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.27,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.22,
      "p2": 1.65
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2777,
    "prob_p2": 0.7223,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7223,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 37,
      "utr_singles": 12.39,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
    "utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 2.0,
    "points_diff": -2777,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.23749999999999,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 60.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.562927221552073,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -25,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.488077055429833,
    "rank_advantage": -24,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -10.714285714285708,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.9562499999999972,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.285238095238093,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7901234567901234,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.7038690476190474,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.5999999999999943,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.433901543643018,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.765271979576315,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 15.943682736748203,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.9249999999999972,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 49.460000000000015,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 63,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16685714285714293,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22599999999999998,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.178743961352644,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}