McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
McCartney …: 27,8%
Madison …: 72,2%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,39 vs 12,50
(-0,07)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | McCartney … | Madison … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,50 | 38,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,27 | 1,67 | 44,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,60 | 1,38 | 27,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
McCartney …: -8,5%
Madison …: +8,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
McCartney Kessler
Ranking
#37
UTR Rating
12,39 Pro
UTR Ranking
#29
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
27/42 = 64,3%
Madison Keys
Ranking
#9
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -24,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2258 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,4881 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -2777,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -25,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -10,7143 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -9,1787 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3125 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 64,2857 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 75,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,0435 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 72,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,2852 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,9250 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,2375 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,9562 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,7039 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 60,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 49,4600 | |
| current_streak_diff | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 63,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7901 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7788 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5455 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,4339 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,7653 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 15,9437 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1669 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2260 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5176 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5259 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,5629 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21646
API ID
15302210
Gamdom ID
564701
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21646,
"api_id": 15302210,
"gamdom_id": 564701,
"player1": "McCartney Kessler",
"player2": "Madison Keys",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.63,
"p2": 1.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.27,
"p2": 1.67
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.22,
"p2": 1.65
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2777,
"prob_p2": 0.7223,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7223,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 37,
"utr_singles": 12.39,
"utr_ranking": 29,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 64.28571428571429,
"wr_surface_wins": 27,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 9,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 75.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 29,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.5,
"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
"utr_diff": -0.07000000000000028,
"rank_ratio": 0.22580645161290322,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 2.0,
"points_diff": -2777,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.23749999999999,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 60.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 64.28571428571429,
"surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
"utr_advantage": -0.562927221552073,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -25,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.488077055429833,
"rank_advantage": -24,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -10.714285714285708,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.9562499999999972,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.285238095238093,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7901234567901234,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.7038690476190474,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 5,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.5999999999999943,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.433901543643018,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.765271979576315,
"surface_rank_synergy": 15.943682736748203,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.04347826086957,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.9249999999999972,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3125,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 49.460000000000015,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 63,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.16685714285714293,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22599999999999998,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -9.178743961352644,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}