Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 09:55
06 Ene 2026, 09:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sorana Cirstea
Sorana …: 86,6%
Jelena …: 13,4%
¿Por qué Sorana Cirstea?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,10
(+0,31)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sorana … | Jelena … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,41 | 3,05 | 70,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,16 | 7,44 | 86,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sorana …: +20,9%
Jelena …: -20,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking
#41
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/41 = 63,4%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking
#24
UTR Rating
12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -20,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5349 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,6257 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -557,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 25,3194 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 18,8889 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,9524 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 38,0952 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 62,2222 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 21,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2683 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,2377 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,4878 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,6951 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,4073 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,6574 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 66,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 62,5500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9589 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7374 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,6366 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 20,7708 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -15,8425 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1541 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1390 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4824 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,5296 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21647
API ID
15302213
Gamdom ID
564704
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21647,
"api_id": 15302213,
"gamdom_id": 564704,
"player1": "Sorana Cirstea",
"player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T05:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.41,
"p2": 3.05
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.4,
"p2": 2.94
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8656,
"prob_p2": 0.1344,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8656,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 41,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 24,
"utr_singles": 12.1,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 21,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.1,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
"utr_diff": 0.3100000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 0.5348837209302325,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 2.0,
"points_diff": -557,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.6000000000000085,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 66.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7,
"surface_wr_p1": 63.41463414634146,
"surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
"utr_advantage": 2.5295797633618977,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -16,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.6257058997644128,
"rank_advantage": -20,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 25.319396051103368,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.40731707317073074,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 21,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.23768873403019342,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.958904109589041,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.6573751451800232,
"combined_confidence": 0.85,
"current_streak_diff": 5,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.4878048780487632,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2682926829268293,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.6366485867254,
"serve_consistency_p2": 20.770828749035328,
"surface_rank_synergy": -15.842495487647154,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.22222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.6951219512195053,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.9523809523809523,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 62.55000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 90,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15414634146341466,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1390476190476191,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 18.88888888888889,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}