Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 09:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sorana Cirstea
Sorana …: 86,6% Jelena …: 13,4%
¿Por qué Sorana Cirstea?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,10 (+0,31) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sorana … Jelena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,41 3,05 70,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,16 7,44 86,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Sorana …: +20,9% Jelena …: -20,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking #41
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/41 = 63,4%
Jelena Ostapenko
Ranking #24
UTR Rating 12,10 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 8/21 = 38,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -20,0000
rank_ratio 0,5349
log_rank_ratio -0,6257
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -557,0000
best_rank_diff -16,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 25,3194
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 18,8889
surface_matches_ratio 1,9524
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 63,4146
surface_wr_p2 38,0952
surface_wr_p1_stable 62,2222
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 21,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2683
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7000
combined_confidence 0,8500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,2377
first_serve_won_diff 1,4878
second_serve_won_diff 2,6951
bp_saved_diff 6,6000
bp_converted_diff -0,4073
aces_per_match_diff -0,6574
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 2,0000
momentum_diff 66,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 62,5500
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 90,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9589
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7374
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 13,6366
serve_consistency_p2 20,7708
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -15,8425
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1541
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1390
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3100
utr_p1 0,5188
utr_p2 0,4824
utr_advantage 2,5296
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21647
API ID 15302213
Gamdom ID 564704
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21647,
    "api_id": 15302213,
    "gamdom_id": 564704,
    "player1": "Sorana Cirstea",
    "player2": "Jelena Ostapenko",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T05:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.41,
      "p2": 3.05
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.4,
      "p2": 2.94
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8656,
    "prob_p2": 0.1344,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8656,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 41,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 24,
      "utr_singles": 12.1,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.095238095238095,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 21,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.1,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.48235294117647054,
    "utr_diff": 0.3100000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5348837209302325,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 2.0,
    "points_diff": -557,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.6000000000000085,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 66.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7,
    "surface_wr_p1": 63.41463414634146,
    "surface_wr_p2": 38.095238095238095,
    "utr_advantage": 2.5295797633618977,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -16,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.6257058997644128,
    "rank_advantage": -20,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 25.319396051103368,
    "bp_converted_diff": -0.40731707317073074,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 21,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.23768873403019342,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.958904109589041,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7373737373737373,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.6573751451800232,
    "combined_confidence": 0.85,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.4878048780487632,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2682926829268293,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.6366485867254,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 20.770828749035328,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -15.842495487647154,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 62.22222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.6951219512195053,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.9523809523809523,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 62.55000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 90,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15414634146341466,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1390476190476191,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 18.88888888888889,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}