Denis Shapovalov vs Raphael Collignon
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Denis Shapovalov
Denis …: 59,9% Raphael …: 40,1%
¿Por qué Denis Shapovalov?
UTR 15,35 vs 14,93 (+0,62) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Denis … Raphael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,74 2,10 57,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,67 2,49 59,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Denis …: -0,4% Raphael …: +0,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 23/37 = 62,2%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 62,0000
rank_ratio 3,6957
log_rank_ratio 1,3072
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 961,0000
best_rank_diff 63,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -3,4628
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -2,9133
surface_matches_ratio 1,1563
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,1622
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,9756
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2432
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,1388
first_serve_won_diff -1,0887
second_serve_won_diff 1,0610
bp_saved_diff 1,7568
bp_converted_diff 5,0503
aces_per_match_diff 2,6824
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 28,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -52,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -41,3300
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 68,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8812
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9123
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5263
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 1,6583
serve_consistency_p2 5,6965
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,5265
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0596
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2183
elite_surface_amplifier -3,4628
UTR
utr_diff 0,6200
utr_p1 0,8812
utr_p2 0,8082
utr_advantage 4,0843
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21660
API ID 15313776
Gamdom ID 571628
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21660,
    "api_id": 15313776,
    "gamdom_id": 571628,
    "player1": "Denis Shapovalov",
    "player2": "Raphael Collignon",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.74,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.75,
      "p2": 2.05
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5989,
    "prob_p2": 0.4011,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5989,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 15.35,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.35,
      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8811764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_diff": 0.620000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 3.6956521739130435,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 961,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.756756756756765,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -52.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": 4.08432147562583,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 63,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.3071570405611668,
    "rank_advantage": 62,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -3.4628378378378386,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.05033783783783,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.138817567567557,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8812260536398467,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.6824324324324316,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.0886824324324351,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 1.6583169233373445,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.6965450825585195,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.526472860051339,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.0609797297297234,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.15625,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -41.330000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -3.4628378378378386,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 68,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.059621621621621546,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21825000000000006,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.913279132791324,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}