Denis Shapovalov vs Raphael Collignon
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
06 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Denis Shapovalov
Denis …: 59,9%
Raphael …: 40,1%
¿Por qué Denis Shapovalov?
UTR 15,35 vs 14,93
(+0,62)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Denis … | Raphael … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,74 | 2,10 | 57,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,67 | 2,49 | 59,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Denis …: -0,4%
Raphael …: +0,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Denis Shapovalov
Ranking
#23
UTR Rating
15,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#42
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
23/37 = 62,2%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking
#72
UTR Rating
14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking
#96
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 62,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,6957 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,3072 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 961,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 63,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -3,4628 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,9133 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1563 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,1622 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 65,6250 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 63,8889 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2432 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,1388 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,0887 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,0610 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,7568 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,0503 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6824 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -52,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -41,3300 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8812 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9123 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5263 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 1,6583 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,6965 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -4,5265 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0596 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2183 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -3,4628 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,6200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8812 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,0843 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21660
API ID
15313776
Gamdom ID
571628
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21660,
"api_id": 15313776,
"gamdom_id": 571628,
"player1": "Denis Shapovalov",
"player2": "Raphael Collignon",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.74,
"p2": 2.1
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.75,
"p2": 2.05
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5989,
"prob_p2": 0.4011,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5989,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 23,
"utr_singles": 15.35,
"utr_ranking": 42,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.16216216216216,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 72,
"utr_singles": 14.93,
"utr_ranking": 96,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.625,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 42,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 96,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
"utr_diff": 0.620000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 3.6956521739130435,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 961,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.756756756756765,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -52.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.16216216216216,
"surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
"utr_advantage": 4.08432147562583,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 63,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.3071570405611668,
"rank_advantage": 62,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5263157894736842,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -3.4628378378378386,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.05033783783783,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 32,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.138817567567557,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8812260536398467,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.6824324324324316,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.0886824324324351,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.24324324324324326,
"serve_consistency_p1": 1.6583169233373445,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.6965450825585195,
"surface_rank_synergy": -4.526472860051339,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.0609797297297234,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.15625,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -41.330000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -3.4628378378378386,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 68,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.059621621621621546,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21825000000000006,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.913279132791324,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}