Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreño Busta
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor …: 57,4% Pablo …: 42,6%
¿Por qué Grigor Dimitrov?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Grigor … Pablo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,63 66,7%
Gamdom 1,47 2,70 68,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,74 2,35 57,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Grigor …: -6,3% Pablo …: +6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Grigor Dimitrov
Ranking #45
UTR Rating 15,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/16 = 62,5%
Pablo Carreño Busta
Ranking #94
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 49,0000
rank_ratio 2,1136
log_rank_ratio 0,7484
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 512,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,9211
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,1111
surface_matches_ratio 0,4211
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 68,4211
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 66,6667
p1_surface_matches 16,0000
p2_surface_matches 38,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,5621
first_serve_won_diff 3,5194
second_serve_won_diff -1,0316
bp_saved_diff 4,4530
bp_converted_diff -5,5773
aces_per_match_diff 1,5559
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -5,8800
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 69,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8571
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 7,4656
serve_consistency_p2 8,5848
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -4,4314
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0760
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2332
elite_surface_amplifier -5,9211
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9200
utr_p2 0,9200
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21661
API ID 15313780
Gamdom ID 571626
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21661,
    "api_id": 15313780,
    "gamdom_id": 571626,
    "player1": "Grigor Dimitrov",
    "player2": "Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.63
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.47,
      "p2": 2.7
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.46,
      "p2": 2.68
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5738,
    "prob_p2": 0.4262,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5738,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 45,
      "utr_singles": 15.67,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 94,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 15.67,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.92,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 2.1136363636363638,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 512,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.452960526315792,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 68.42105263157895,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.7484098592349948,
    "rank_advantage": 49,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.921052631578945,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.577302631578945,
    "p1_surface_matches": 16,
    "p2_surface_matches": 38,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.562072368421056,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8571428571428571,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.5559210526315788,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.519407894736844,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.4656126723637986,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.584790594534725,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -4.4313741665229935,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.0315789473684234,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.42105263157894735,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -5.8799999999999955,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -5.921052631578945,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07600000000000007,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.23321052631578942,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.111111111111104,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}