James Duckworth vs Alex Michelsen
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 06:35
05 Ene 2026, 06:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex Michelsen
James …: 40,3%
Alex …: 59,7%
¿Por qué Alex Michelsen?
UTR 14,78 vs 15,12
(-0,69)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | James … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,11 | 1,74 | 47,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,48 | 1,68 | 40,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
James …: -2,8%
Alex …: +2,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
James Duckworth
Ranking
#88
UTR Rating
14,78 Pro
UTR Ranking
#119
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
29/50 = 58,0%
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4368 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,8283 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -606,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 8,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 7,4074 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4706 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,4074 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1600 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 7,8628 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,2765 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,6701 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,5771 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,1289 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,3118 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 70,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 59,1000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 69,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5349 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9762 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7273 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,0110 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,5969 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -6,6266 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1290 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0490 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7506 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,6859 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21662
API ID
15313779
Gamdom ID
571623
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21662,
"api_id": 15313779,
"gamdom_id": 571623,
"player1": "James Duckworth",
"player2": "Alex Michelsen",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T02:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.11,
"p2": 1.74
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.11,
"p2": 1.71
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4034,
"prob_p2": 0.5966,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5966,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 88,
"utr_singles": 14.78,
"utr_ranking": 119,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.99999999999999,
"wr_surface_wins": 29,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.78,
"ranking": 119,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.12,
"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.831764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.6899999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 0.4367816091954023,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 10.0,
"points_diff": -606,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.57705882352942,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 70.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": -4.685908319185056,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -16,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.8283219589281979,
"rank_advantage": -49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 7.999999999999993,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.1289411764705903,
"p1_surface_matches": 50,
"p2_surface_matches": 34,
"serve_quality_diff": 7.862800000000007,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5348837209302325,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9761904761904762,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.3117647058823536,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 5,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.2764705882352985,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.16,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.010980370802877,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.596931277213223,
"surface_rank_synergy": -6.626575671425577,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.407407407407405,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.6701176470588237,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4705882352941178,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 59.1,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 69,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.129,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.049000000000000044,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.407407407407405,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}