Matteo Arnaldi vs Daniel Altmaier
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 07:20
05 Ene 2026, 07:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo …: 51,6%
Daniel …: 48,4%
¿Por qué Matteo Arnaldi?
UTR 15,16 vs 15,32
(-0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Matteo … | Daniel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,10 | 57,8% |
| Gamdom | 2,10 | 1,74 | 47,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,94 | 2,06 | 51,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Matteo …: -3,3%
Daniel …: +3,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking
#65
UTR Rating
15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Daniel Altmaier
Ranking
#44
UTR Rating
15,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#48
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
17/38 = 44,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -15,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7541 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2822 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -250,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 16,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,7480 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,4106 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8684 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,4848 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 44,7368 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,6486 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 45,2381 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0303 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,7482 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,2357 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,5734 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 1,9132 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,4365 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,7512 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -3,4150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 59,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5714 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1217 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,7308 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,2281 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,0578 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0002 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0676 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8529 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8859 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,8194 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21663
API ID
15313781
Gamdom ID
571625
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
cancelled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21663,
"api_id": 15313781,
"gamdom_id": 571625,
"player1": "Matteo Arnaldi",
"player2": "Daniel Altmaier",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T03:20:00+00:00",
"status": "cancelled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.74
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.72
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5157,
"prob_p2": 0.4843,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5157,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 65,
"utr_singles": 15.16,
"utr_ranking": 70,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 44,
"utr_singles": 15.32,
"utr_ranking": 48,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 44.73684210526316,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 70,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.32,
"ranking": 48,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8858823529411763,
"utr_diff": -0.27999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 0.7540983606557377,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 52.0,
"points_diff": -250,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 1.9132376395534152,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
"surface_wr_p2": 44.73684210526316,
"utr_advantage": -1.8193632228719905,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 16,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.28223246768421634,
"rank_advantage": -15,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.748006379585327,
"bp_converted_diff": 0.436523125996807,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 38,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.7482456140350706,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1216931216931216,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.7511961722488039,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.2357256778309278,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.730848148968119,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.2281440500824194,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.0578090894065524,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 45.23809523809524,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.57336523125997,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.868421052631579,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -3.414999999999992,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 59,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.00015151515151512474,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.06763157894736843,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.410553410553412,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}