Reilly Opelka vs Dane Sweeny
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 10:30
05 Ene 2026, 10:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Reilly Opelka
Reilly …: 59,2%
Dane …: 40,8%
¿Por qué Reilly Opelka?
UTR 15,11 vs 14,51
(+0,94)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Reilly … | Dane … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,58 | 2,40 | 63,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,69 | 2,45 | 59,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Reilly …: -1,1%
Dane …: +1,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Dane Sweeny
Ranking
#182
UTR Rating
14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking
#179
Forma L5
75% (4p)
Forma L10
75% (4p)
WR Hard
8/15 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 130,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 3,5000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,2528 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 693,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 164,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,7571 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,3333 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 52,6316 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7500 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 33,7067 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 13,6143 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,4429 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 23,0857 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -4,2857 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 12,9333 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,3500 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 79,5918 | |
| momentum_diff | -57,5918 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -43,9200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0341 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,3453 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0167 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,3518 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0300 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1633 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 6,6667 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7306 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,4033 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21664
API ID
15313782
Gamdom ID
571622
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21664,
"api_id": 15313782,
"gamdom_id": 571622,
"player1": "Reilly Opelka",
"player2": "Dane Sweeny",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T06:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.58,
"p2": 2.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.56,
"p2": 2.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5916,
"prob_p2": 0.4084,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5916,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 63,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 182,
"utr_singles": 14.51,
"utr_ranking": 179,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 75.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.51,
"ranking": 179,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8411764705882353,
"utr_p2": 0.7305882352941178,
"utr_diff": 0.9399999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 3.5,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 79.59183673469387,
"points_diff": 693,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 23.085714285714282,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.35,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -57.59183673469387,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": 6.40326975476839,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 164,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.252762968495368,
"rank_advantage": 130,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.666666666666664,
"bp_converted_diff": -4.285714285714281,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 15,
"serve_quality_diff": 33.70666666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 12.933333333333334,
"combined_confidence": 0.75,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 13.614285714285714,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.345328661852122,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.016676832877212,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.351753123302451,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.63157894736842,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.442857142857143,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.3333333333333335,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -43.92,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 6.666666666666664,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.030000000000000027,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16333333333333333,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.75708502024292,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}