Sofia Kenin vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Sofia …: 32,4% Ekaterina …: 67,6%
¿Por qué Ekaterina Alexandrova?
UTR 11,99 vs 12,74 (-0,77) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sofia … Ekaterina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 3,55 1,32 28,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,08 1,48 32,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Sofia …: +0,6% Ekaterina …: -0,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Kenin
Ranking #30
UTR Rating 11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 18/35 = 51,4%
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ranking #11
UTR Rating 12,74 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -18,0000
rank_ratio 0,3571
log_rank_ratio -1,0296
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1786,0000
best_rank_diff 6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -8,5714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,8089
surface_matches_ratio 0,8750
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,4286
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,2821
surface_wr_p2_stable 59,0909
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 40,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0286
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,0586
first_serve_won_diff -3,7375
second_serve_won_diff 1,4625
bp_saved_diff -8,1250
bp_converted_diff -5,8125
aces_per_match_diff -3,3143
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 18,6000
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 61,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0568
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2222
serve_consistency_p1 11,4685
serve_consistency_p2 8,7990
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 8,8253
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0323
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0820
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7700
utr_p1 0,4741
utr_p2 0,5647
utr_advantage -6,2022
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21669
API ID 15302193
Gamdom ID 564694
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21669,
    "api_id": 15302193,
    "gamdom_id": 564694,
    "player1": "Sofia Kenin",
    "player2": "Ekaterina Alexandrova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T04:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.55,
      "p2": 1.32
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.37,
      "p2": 1.32
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3243,
    "prob_p2": 0.6757,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6757,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 30,
      "utr_singles": 11.99,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.42857142857142,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 11,
      "utr_singles": 12.74,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 40,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.99,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.74,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5647058823529413,
    "utr_diff": -0.7700000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 0.35714285714285715,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -1786,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -8.125,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.42857142857142,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": -6.2021747885622345,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.0296194171811581,
    "rank_advantage": -18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2222222222222222,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -8.571428571428577,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.8125,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 40,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.058571428571426,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0568181818181819,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.314285714285714,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.7375000000000043,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.02857142857142857,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.468490137960869,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.798950678401482,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 8.825309290124217,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.28205128205128,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.4624999999999986,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 18.60000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03228571428571425,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08199999999999996,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.808857808857816,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}