Sofia Kenin vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 08:05
06 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Sofia …: 32,4%
Ekaterina …: 67,6%
¿Por qué Ekaterina Alexandrova?
UTR 11,99 vs 12,74
(-0,77)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sofia … | Ekaterina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 3,55 | 1,32 | 28,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,08 | 1,48 | 32,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sofia …: +0,6%
Ekaterina …: -0,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Kenin
Ranking
#30
UTR Rating
11,99 Pro
UTR Ranking
#96
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
18/35 = 51,4%
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ranking
#11
UTR Rating
12,74 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
24/40 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3571 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,0296 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1786,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -8,5714 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,8089 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8750 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 51,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 51,2821 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,0909 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0286 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,0586 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,7375 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,4625 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -8,1250 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,8125 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,3143 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 18,6000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 61,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0568 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2222 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,4685 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,7990 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 8,8253 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0323 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0820 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4741 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5647 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,2022 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21669
API ID
15302193
Gamdom ID
564694
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21669,
"api_id": 15302193,
"gamdom_id": 564694,
"player1": "Sofia Kenin",
"player2": "Ekaterina Alexandrova",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T04:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.55,
"p2": 1.32
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.37,
"p2": 1.32
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3243,
"prob_p2": 0.6757,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6757,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 30,
"utr_singles": 11.99,
"utr_ranking": 96,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.42857142857142,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 11,
"utr_singles": 12.74,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 40,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.99,
"ranking": 96,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.74,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5647058823529413,
"utr_diff": -0.7700000000000014,
"rank_ratio": 0.35714285714285715,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": -1786,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -8.125,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 28.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 51.42857142857142,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": -6.2021747885622345,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 6,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.0296194171811581,
"rank_advantage": -18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2222222222222222,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -8.571428571428577,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.8125,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 40,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.058571428571426,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0568181818181819,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.314285714285714,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.7375000000000043,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.02857142857142857,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.468490137960869,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.798950678401482,
"surface_rank_synergy": 8.825309290124217,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.28205128205128,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.09090909090909,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.4624999999999986,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.875,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 18.60000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03228571428571425,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08199999999999996,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.808857808857816,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}