Polina Iatcenko vs Ena Shibahara
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Qualification Final
05 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Polina Iatcenko
Polina …: 86,7% Ena …: 13,3%
¿Por qué Polina Iatcenko?
UTR 11,97 vs 11,83 (+0,05) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Polina … Ena … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,00 57,9%
Gamdom 1,65 2,12 60,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,15 7,51 86,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Polina …: +33,0% Ena …: -33,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Iatcenko
Ranking #159
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #115
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 8/10 = 80,0%
Ena Shibahara
Ranking #192
UTR Rating 11,83 Pro
UTR Ranking #146
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/26 = 42,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 24,0000
rank_ratio 1,1420
log_rank_ratio 0,1328
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 58,0000
best_rank_diff -48,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 37,6923
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 18,2619
surface_matches_ratio 0,3846
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 80,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,3077
surface_wr_p1_stable 71,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,3333
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,6500
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -56,7123
first_serve_won_diff -64,0346
second_serve_won_diff -57,1885
bp_saved_diff -55,2692
bp_converted_diff -45,0462
aces_per_match_diff -3,7692
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 20,8790
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3333
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 14,2472
serve_consistency_p2 12,9228
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 5,0052
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2760
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0529
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0500
utr_p1 0,4576
utr_p2 0,4518
utr_advantage 0,4214
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21675
API ID 15314018
Gamdom ID 571966
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21675,
    "api_id": 15314018,
    "gamdom_id": 571966,
    "player1": "Polina Iatcenko",
    "player2": "Ena Shibahara",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-05T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.7272727272727273,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.65,
      "p2": 2.12
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.13
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.8668,
    "prob_p2": 0.1332,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.8668,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 159,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 115,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 80.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 192,
      "utr_singles": 11.83,
      "utr_ranking": 146,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.30769230769231,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 115,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.83,
      "ranking": 146,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45764705882352946,
    "utr_p2": 0.4517647058823529,
    "utr_diff": 0.05000000000000071,
    "rank_ratio": 1.1420118343195267,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 58,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -55.26923076923077,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 80.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.30769230769231,
    "utr_advantage": 0.42140750105352476,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -48,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.13279147398181212,
    "rank_advantage": 24,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 37.69230769230769,
    "bp_converted_diff": -45.04615384615384,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -56.7123076923077,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.769230769230769,
    "combined_confidence": 0.65,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -64.03461538461539,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.247171133398387,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.922827743825048,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 5.005217096237534,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -57.18846153846153,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 20.879000000000012,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.276,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.052923076923076906,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 18.261904761904763,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}