Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 15:15
06 Ene 2026, 15:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Marie …: 48,9%
Paula …: 51,1%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,62
(-0,12)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marie … | Paula … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,80 | 50,0% |
| Gamdom | 1,94 | 1,91 | 51,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,04 | 1,96 | 48,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marie …: +1,6%
Paula …: -1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking
#44
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Paula Badosa
Ranking
#26
UTR Rating
12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking
#12
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -17,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5952 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5188 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -416,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -22,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,4091 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,9630 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4545 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 59,0909 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,6923 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2500 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -9,0256 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -6,5852 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,3750 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,0602 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,6614 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -2,2102 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 16,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 16,0290 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 99,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5962 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7886 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,5370 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,4658 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,7686 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1420 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0739 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5271 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,9569 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21677
API ID
15302211
Gamdom ID
564706
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21677,
"api_id": 15302211,
"gamdom_id": 564706,
"player1": "Marie Bouzkova",
"player2": "Paula Badosa",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T11:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.94,
"p2": 1.91
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.97,
"p2": 1.82
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4892,
"prob_p2": 0.5108,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5108,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 44,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 26,
"utr_singles": 12.62,
"utr_ranking": 12,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.62,
"ranking": 12,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.11999999999999922,
"rank_ratio": 0.5952380952380952,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": -416,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.0602272727272677,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 16.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
"utr_advantage": -0.9569377990430561,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -22,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5187937934151675,
"rank_advantage": -17,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.4090909090909065,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.661363636363632,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 22,
"serve_quality_diff": -9.02556818181818,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
"aces_per_match_diff": -2.2102272727272725,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -6.585227272727266,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.537041373113535,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.465752729030603,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.7686152048244335,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.375,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4545454545454546,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 16.02900000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 99,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14200000000000002,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07390909090909092,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.962962962962971,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}