Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 15:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Paula Badosa
Marie …: 48,9% Paula …: 51,1%
¿Por qué Paula Badosa?
UTR 12,48 vs 12,62 (-0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marie … Paula … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
Gamdom 1,94 1,91 51,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,04 1,96 48,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Marie …: +1,6% Paula …: -1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marie Bouzkova
Ranking #44
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Paula Badosa
Ranking #26
UTR Rating 12,62 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/22 = 59,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -17,0000
rank_ratio 0,5952
log_rank_ratio -0,5188
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -416,0000
best_rank_diff -22,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,4091
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,9630
surface_matches_ratio 1,4545
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 59,0909
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,1111
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,6923
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 22,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,7333
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -9,0256
first_serve_won_diff -6,5852
second_serve_won_diff -4,3750
bp_saved_diff -2,0602
bp_converted_diff 8,6614
aces_per_match_diff -2,2102
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 48,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 16,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 16,0290
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 99,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5962
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7886
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6000
serve_consistency_p1 12,5370
serve_consistency_p2 11,4658
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,7686
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1420
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0739
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1200
utr_p1 0,5271
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage -0,9569
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21677
API ID 15302211
Gamdom ID 564706
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21677,
    "api_id": 15302211,
    "gamdom_id": 564706,
    "player1": "Marie Bouzkova",
    "player2": "Paula Badosa",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T11:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.94,
      "p2": 1.91
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.97,
      "p2": 1.82
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4892,
    "prob_p2": 0.5108,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5108,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 44,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 26,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.09090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5270588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.11999999999999922,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5952380952380952,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": -416,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.0602272727272677,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 16.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 59.09090909090909,
    "utr_advantage": -0.9569377990430561,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -22,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5187937934151675,
    "rank_advantage": -17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.4090909090909065,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.661363636363632,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 22,
    "serve_quality_diff": -9.02556818181818,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5961538461538461,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7886178861788617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.2102272727272725,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.585227272727266,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.537041373113535,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.465752729030603,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.7686152048244335,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.375,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4545454545454546,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 16.02900000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 99,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14200000000000002,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07390909090909092,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.962962962962971,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}