Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina Bucsa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 90,6% Cristina …: 9,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,35 (+0,56) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Cristina … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,06 10,00 94,3%
Gamdom 1,06 11,00 94,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,10 10,58 90,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +0,1% Cristina …: -0,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Cristina Bucsa
Ranking #52
UTR Rating 12,35 Pro
UTR Ranking #39
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 28/48 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 49,0000
rank_ratio 50,0000
log_rank_ratio 3,9120
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 9363,0000
best_rank_diff 50,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 27,3810
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 24,9164
surface_matches_ratio 0,8750
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 57,6923
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 48,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 9,3725
first_serve_won_diff 4,1997
second_serve_won_diff 6,1071
bp_saved_diff 8,7077
bp_converted_diff 2,9372
aces_per_match_diff 2,7202
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 12,0500
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 58,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9748
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 3,8175
serve_consistency_p2 12,3411
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 107,1149
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3081
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1323
elite_surface_amplifier 54,7619
UTR
utr_diff 0,5600
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,5129
utr_advantage 4,4304
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21804
API ID 15302214
Gamdom ID 564693
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21804,
    "api_id": 15302214,
    "gamdom_id": 564693,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Cristina Bucsa",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T02:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.06,
      "p2": 11.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 10.51
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9055,
    "prob_p2": 0.0945,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9055,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 52,
      "utr_singles": 12.35,
      "utr_ranking": 39,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 48,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.35,
      "ranking": 39,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_diff": 0.5600000000000005,
    "rank_ratio": 50.0,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 60.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 9363,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 8.7077380952381,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 4.430379746835446,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 50,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.912023005428146,
    "rank_advantage": 49,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 27.380952380952372,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.937202380952364,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 48,
    "serve_quality_diff": 9.37247023809524,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9747899159663865,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.720238095238095,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.199702380952388,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.8174888077915243,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.341125627714737,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 107.11491562481825,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 6.107142857142854,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 12.049999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 54.761904761904745,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 58,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.30814285714285716,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1323333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 24.91638795986622,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}