Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina Bucsa
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 06:45
06 Ene 2026, 06:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 90,6%
Cristina …: 9,5%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,35
(+0,56)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Cristina … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,06 | 10,00 | 94,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,06 | 11,00 | 94,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,10 | 10,58 | 90,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +0,1%
Cristina …: -0,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Cristina Bucsa
Ranking
#52
UTR Rating
12,35 Pro
UTR Ranking
#39
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
28/48 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 49,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 50,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,9120 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 9363,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 50,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 27,3810 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 24,9164 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8750 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 58,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 57,6923 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 48,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 9,3725 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,1997 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,1071 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,7077 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,9372 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,7202 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 12,0500 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9748 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,8175 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,3411 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 107,1149 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3081 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1323 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 54,7619 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5129 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,4304 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21804
API ID
15302214
Gamdom ID
564693
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21804,
"api_id": 15302214,
"gamdom_id": 564693,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Cristina Bucsa",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T02:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.06,
"p2": 10.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.06,
"p2": 11.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 10.51
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9055,
"prob_p2": 0.0945,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9055,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 52,
"utr_singles": 12.35,
"utr_ranking": 39,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 48,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 39,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
"utr_diff": 0.5600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 50.0,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 9363,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.7077380952381,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
"utr_advantage": 4.430379746835446,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 50,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 3.912023005428146,
"rank_advantage": 49,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 27.380952380952372,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.937202380952364,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 48,
"serve_quality_diff": 9.37247023809524,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9747899159663865,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.720238095238095,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.199702380952388,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.8174888077915243,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.341125627714737,
"surface_rank_synergy": 107.11491562481825,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 57.692307692307686,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.107142857142854,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.875,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 12.049999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 54.761904761904745,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 58,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.30814285714285716,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1323333333333333,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 24.91638795986622,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}