Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Learner Tien
Alex …: 40,0% Learner …: 60,0%
¿Por qué Learner Tien?
UTR 15,12 vs 15,57 (-0,63) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alex … Learner … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,49 1,54 40,2%
IA Fair Odds 2,50 1,67 40,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Alex …: -1,3% Learner …: +1,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex Michelsen
Ranking #38
UTR Rating 15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking #87
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/34 = 50,0%
Learner Tien
Ranking #29
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #24
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -10,0000
rank_ratio 0,7368
log_rank_ratio -0,3054
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -240,0000
best_rank_diff -2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -18,5185
surface_matches_ratio 0,6800
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 70,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 68,5185
p1_surface_matches 34,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,4810
first_serve_won_diff 0,1095
second_serve_won_diff -5,9741
bp_saved_diff -1,2731
bp_converted_diff -11,9749
aces_per_match_diff 0,6282
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -58,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -32,2200
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 3,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,6667
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,7263
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9762
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7273
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 8,4790
serve_consistency_p2 7,1313
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 6,1076
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0100
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1900
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6300
utr_p1 0,8318
utr_p2 0,9059
utr_advantage -4,0949
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21806
API ID 15298534
Gamdom ID 563258
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21806,
    "api_id": 15298534,
    "gamdom_id": 563258,
    "player1": "Alex Michelsen",
    "player2": "Learner Tien",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.49,
      "p2": 1.54
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.46,
      "p2": 1.53
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4001,
    "prob_p2": 0.5999,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5999,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 38,
      "utr_singles": 15.12,
      "utr_ranking": 87,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 34,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 29,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 24,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 35,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.12,
      "ranking": 87,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 24,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.831764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.9058823529411764,
    "utr_diff": -0.629999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7368421052631579,
    "h2h_matches": 3,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -240,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.2730588235294107,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -57.99999999999998,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
    "utr_advantage": -4.0948976275593045,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.3053816495511819,
    "rank_advantage": -10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7272727272727273,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -11.974941176470587,
    "p1_surface_matches": 34,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.48100000000000875,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9761904761904762,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.6282352941176468,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.10952941176469722,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.39999999999999997,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.7262619488930734,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.479002665758514,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.131267685634471,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 6.107632991023638,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -5.974117647058819,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.68,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -32.22,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.010000000000000009,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18999999999999995,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.51851851851852,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}