Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Learner Tien
Alex …: 40,0%
Learner …: 60,0%
¿Por qué Learner Tien?
UTR 15,12 vs 15,57
(-0,63)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alex … | Learner … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,49 | 1,54 | 40,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,50 | 1,67 | 40,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alex …: -1,3%
Learner …: +1,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex Michelsen
Ranking
#38
UTR Rating
15,12 Pro
UTR Ranking
#87
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
17/34 = 50,0%
Learner Tien
Ranking
#29
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#24
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -10,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7368 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,3054 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -240,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -18,5185 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6800 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 68,5185 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 34,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,4810 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,1095 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -5,9741 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,2731 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -11,9749 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,6282 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -58,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -32,2200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -4,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,6667 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,7263 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9762 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7273 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,4790 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,1313 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 6,1076 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0100 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1900 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8318 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9059 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,0949 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21806
API ID
15298534
Gamdom ID
563258
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21806,
"api_id": 15298534,
"gamdom_id": 563258,
"player1": "Alex Michelsen",
"player2": "Learner Tien",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.62
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.49,
"p2": 1.54
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.46,
"p2": 1.53
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4001,
"prob_p2": 0.5999,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5999,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 38,
"utr_singles": 15.12,
"utr_ranking": 87,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 17,
"wr_surface_total": 34,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 29,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 24,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 35,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 87,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 24,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9058823529411764,
"utr_diff": -0.629999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 0.7368421052631579,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -240,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.2730588235294107,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -57.99999999999998,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
"utr_advantage": -4.0948976275593045,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.3053816495511819,
"rank_advantage": -10,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7272727272727273,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.6666666666666666,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.0,
"bp_converted_diff": -11.974941176470587,
"p1_surface_matches": 34,
"p2_surface_matches": 50,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.48100000000000875,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9761904761904762,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.6282352941176468,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -4,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.10952941176469722,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.39999999999999997,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.7262619488930734,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.479002665758514,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.131267685634471,
"surface_rank_synergy": 6.107632991023638,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
"second_serve_won_diff": -5.974117647058819,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.68,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -32.22,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.010000000000000009,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.18999999999999995,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -18.51851851851852,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}