Sofia Costoulas vs Kaitlin Quevedo
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Kaitlin Quevedo
Sofia …: 47,5%
Kaitlin …: 52,5%
¿Por qué Kaitlin Quevedo?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sofia … | Kaitlin … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,10 | 1,73 | 47,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,99 | 1,83 | 50,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,11 | 1,90 | 47,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sofia …: +2,3%
Kaitlin …: -2,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Costoulas
Ranking
#143
UTR Rating
11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking
#179
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
1/4 = 25,0%
Kaitlin Quevedo
Ranking
#129
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -18,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8868 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1201 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -69,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -6,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -4,0185 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 4,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 32,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 44,4444 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 4,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,5000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3533 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3267 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 53,9550 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 58,4500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 49,1000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 59,9000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 35,5250 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 5,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -2,0500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 14,9946 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0508 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,0036 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2320 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5180 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4282 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4282 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21810
API ID
15302249
Gamdom ID
564733
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21810,
"api_id": 15302249,
"gamdom_id": 564733,
"player1": "Sofia Costoulas",
"player2": "Kaitlin Quevedo",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T07:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.1,
"p2": 1.73
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.83
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.79
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4746,
"prob_p2": 0.5254,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5254,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 143,
"utr_singles": 11.72,
"utr_ranking": 179,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 25.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 1,
"wr_surface_total": 4,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 129,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.72,
"ranking": 179,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.4282352941176471,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.8867924528301887,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 92.0,
"points_diff": -69,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 59.900000000000006,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -6,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.12014431184206321,
"rank_advantage": -18,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 25.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 35.525000000000006,
"p1_surface_matches": 4,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 53.955,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 5.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 58.449999999999996,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
"serve_consistency_p1": 14.994564957785268,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.050752197510072,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.0036077960515803,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.14285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
"second_serve_won_diff": 49.10000000000001,
"surface_matches_ratio": 4.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -2.049999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23199999999999998,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.518,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.018518518518519,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}