Sofia Costoulas vs Kaitlin Quevedo
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Kaitlin Quevedo
Sofia …: 47,5% Kaitlin …: 52,5%
¿Por qué Kaitlin Quevedo?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sofia … Kaitlin … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,73 47,6%
Gamdom 1,99 1,83 50,3%
IA Fair Odds 2,11 1,90 47,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Sofia …: +2,3% Kaitlin …: -2,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sofia Costoulas
Ranking #143
UTR Rating 11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking #179
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 1/4 = 25,0%
Kaitlin Quevedo
Ranking #129
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -18,0000
rank_ratio 0,8868
log_rank_ratio -0,1201
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -69,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 25,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -4,0185
surface_matches_ratio 4,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 25,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,1429
surface_wr_p2_stable 44,4444
p1_surface_matches 4,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,5000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3533
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3267
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 53,9550
first_serve_won_diff 58,4500
second_serve_won_diff 49,1000
bp_saved_diff 59,9000
bp_converted_diff 35,5250
aces_per_match_diff 5,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 92,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -2,0500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 14,9946
serve_consistency_p2 10,0508
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -3,0036
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2320
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5180
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,4282
utr_p2 0,4282
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21810
API ID 15302249
Gamdom ID 564733
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21810,
    "api_id": 15302249,
    "gamdom_id": 564733,
    "player1": "Sofia Costoulas",
    "player2": "Kaitlin Quevedo",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T07:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.73
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.83
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4746,
    "prob_p2": 0.5254,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5254,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 143,
      "utr_singles": 11.72,
      "utr_ranking": 179,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 25.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 4,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 129,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.72,
      "ranking": 179,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.4282352941176471,
    "utr_p2": 0.4282352941176471,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8867924528301887,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 92.0,
    "points_diff": -69,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 59.900000000000006,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.12014431184206321,
    "rank_advantage": -18,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 25.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 35.525000000000006,
    "p1_surface_matches": 4,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 53.955,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 5.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 58.449999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.5,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 14.994564957785268,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.050752197510072,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -3.0036077960515803,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.14285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 44.44444444444444,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 49.10000000000001,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 4.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -2.049999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.23199999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.518,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -4.018518518518519,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}