Polina Iatcenko vs Destanee Aiava
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 03:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Polina Iatcenko
Polina …: 70,2% Destanee …: 29,8%
¿Por qué Polina Iatcenko?
UTR 11,97 vs 11,54 (+0,27) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Polina … Destanee … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,62 2,30 61,7%
Gamdom 1,64 2,33 61,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,42 3,36 70,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Polina …: +11,5% Destanee …: -11,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Iatcenko
Ranking #159
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #115
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 8/10 = 80,0%
Destanee Aiava
Ranking #237
UTR Rating 11,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #233
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 7/12 = 58,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 72,0000
rank_ratio 1,4417
log_rank_ratio 0,3658
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 120,0000
best_rank_diff -17,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 21,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,7798
surface_matches_ratio 0,8333
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 80,0000
surface_wr_p2 58,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 71,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,2500
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,4467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -55,4733
first_serve_won_diff -64,4000
second_serve_won_diff -54,8000
bp_saved_diff -57,5000
bp_converted_diff -36,1000
aces_per_match_diff -3,4167
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 10,0000
momentum_diff 70,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 48,8950
current_streak_diff 5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 100,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7850
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4000
serve_consistency_p1 13,4329
serve_consistency_p2 9,9753
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 7,9264
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2280
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1553
elite_surface_amplifier 21,6667
UTR
utr_diff 0,2700
utr_p1 0,4576
utr_p2 0,4259
utr_advantage 2,2969
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21816
API ID 15318095
Gamdom ID 573821
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21816,
    "api_id": 15318095,
    "gamdom_id": 573821,
    "player1": "Polina Iatcenko",
    "player2": "Destanee Aiava",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-05T23:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.3
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.64,
      "p2": 2.33
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.58,
      "p2": 2.34
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7021,
    "prob_p2": 0.2979,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7021,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 159,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 115,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 80.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 237,
      "utr_singles": 11.54,
      "utr_ranking": 233,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 58.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 7,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 115,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.54,
      "ranking": 233,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45764705882352946,
    "utr_p2": 0.4258823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 0.27000000000000135,
    "rank_ratio": 1.4417177914110428,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 10.0,
    "points_diff": 120,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -57.5,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 70.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 80.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 58.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 2.296894938324129,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -17,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.36583531333739655,
    "rank_advantage": 72,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 21.666666666666664,
    "bp_converted_diff": -36.1,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -55.473333333333336,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7850467289719626,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.4166666666666665,
    "combined_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -64.4,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.432887463031284,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.975257806727976,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 7.926431788976925,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -54.79999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 48.89500000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 21.666666666666664,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 100,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.22799999999999998,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15533333333333343,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.779761904761905,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}