Elvina Kalieva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 08:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Elvina …: 49,4% Ekaterine …: 50,6%
¿Por qué Ekaterine Gorgodze?
UTR 11,52 vs 11,63 (-0,11) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Elvina … Ekaterine … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 2,00 55,6%
Gamdom 1,82 2,04 54,9%
IA Fair Odds 2,02 1,98 49,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Elvina …: -3,2% Ekaterine …: +3,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Elvina Kalieva
Ranking #207
UTR Rating 11,52 Pro
UTR Ranking #259
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 3/5 = 60,0%
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Ranking #169
UTR Rating 11,63 Pro
UTR Ranking #202
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 1/2 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -27,0000
rank_ratio 0,8670
log_rank_ratio -0,1427
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -38,0000
best_rank_diff -60,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 10,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,8233
surface_matches_ratio 2,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 56,3492
surface_wr_p2_stable 36,6667
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,3467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 8,8800
first_serve_won_diff 11,9000
second_serve_won_diff 7,1000
bp_saved_diff 15,6000
bp_converted_diff -7,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,4000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 80,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -0,4990
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 15,5823
serve_consistency_p2 7,6375
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,4272
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1270
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0270
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1100
utr_p1 0,4071
utr_p2 0,4200
utr_advantage -0,9553
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21819
API ID 15318097
Gamdom ID 573823
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21819,
    "api_id": 15318097,
    "gamdom_id": 573823,
    "player1": "Elvina Kalieva",
    "player2": "Ekaterine Gorgodze",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T04:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 2.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.82,
      "p2": 2.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.78,
      "p2": 1.99
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4939,
    "prob_p2": 0.5061,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5061,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 207,
      "utr_singles": 11.52,
      "utr_ranking": 259,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 169,
      "utr_singles": 11.63,
      "utr_ranking": 202,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.52,
      "ranking": 259,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.63,
      "ranking": 202,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.40705882352941186,
    "utr_p2": 0.42000000000000004,
    "utr_diff": -0.10999999999999943,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8669950738916257,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 80.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -38,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 15.599999999999994,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 2.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": -0.9552757273121965,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -60,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.1427219840036355,
    "rank_advantage": -27,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 10.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": 8.879999999999995,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.3999999999999999,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 11.899999999999991,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 15.582339797104988,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.63746125586529,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.4272198400363552,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 56.34920634920635,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 36.666666666666664,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 7.1000000000000085,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -0.4989999999999952,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.127,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.027000000000000024,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.823280423280424,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}