Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 07:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 67,6% Frances …: 32,4%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,18 (+0,55) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Frances … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,40 75,2%
Gamdom 1,31 3,50 76,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,48 3,08 67,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: -4,3% Frances …: +4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking #34
UTR Rating 15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #62
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 14/26 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 17,0000
rank_ratio 2,3077
log_rank_ratio 0,8362
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1210,0000
best_rank_diff 9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,3712
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,9556
surface_matches_ratio 1,7692
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,3333
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,6253
first_serve_won_diff 4,9726
second_serve_won_diff 4,9896
bp_saved_diff -2,6585
bp_converted_diff -5,9582
aces_per_match_diff -0,6789
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 26,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 29,2140
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,4898
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5385
serve_consistency_p1 12,8786
serve_consistency_p2 8,3957
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 9,5092
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1352
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0555
elite_surface_amplifier 11,3712
UTR
utr_diff 0,5500
utr_p1 0,9188
utr_p2 0,8541
utr_advantage 3,5404
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21822
API ID 15298531
Gamdom ID 563265
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21822,
    "api_id": 15298531,
    "gamdom_id": 563265,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Frances Tiafoe",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T03:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6756,
    "prob_p2": 0.3244,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6756,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 34,
      "utr_singles": 15.18,
      "utr_ranking": 62,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.18,
      "ranking": 62,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9188235294117648,
    "utr_p2": 0.8541176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.5500000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 2.3076923076923075,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 1210,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.6585284280936534,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 25.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
    "utr_advantage": 3.5403926617315786,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8362480242006185,
    "rank_advantage": 17,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5384615384615384,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 11.371237458193981,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.958193979933121,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.6253177257525095,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.489795918367347,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.6789297658862878,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.97257525083613,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.878550484594964,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.39573233311638,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 9.50917485713078,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.989632107023404,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.7692307692307692,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 29.214,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 11.371237458193981,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13517391304347826,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05546153846153845,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.955555555555554,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}