Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 07:20
07 Ene 2026, 07:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 67,6%
Frances …: 32,4%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
UTR 15,81 vs 15,18
(+0,55)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Frances … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,40 | 75,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,31 | 3,50 | 76,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,48 | 3,08 | 67,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: -4,3%
Frances …: +4,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking
#34
UTR Rating
15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#62
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
14/26 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 17,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,3077 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8362 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1210,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 9,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 11,3712 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 9,9556 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7692 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,6253 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9726 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,9896 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,6585 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,9582 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,6789 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 26,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 29,2140 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,4898 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5385 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 12,8786 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,3957 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 9,5092 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1352 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0555 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 11,3712 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8541 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,5404 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21822
API ID
15298531
Gamdom ID
563265
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21822,
"api_id": 15298531,
"gamdom_id": 563265,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Frances Tiafoe",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T03:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.31,
"p2": 3.5
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.31,
"p2": 3.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6756,
"prob_p2": 0.3244,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6756,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 34,
"utr_singles": 15.18,
"utr_ranking": 62,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
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},
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"ranking": 62,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"utr_diff": 0.5500000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 2.3076923076923075,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 1210,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.6585284280936534,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 25.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
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"utr_advantage": 3.5403926617315786,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 9,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8362480242006185,
"rank_advantage": 17,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
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"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 11.371237458193981,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.958193979933121,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.6253177257525095,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.489795918367347,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.6789297658862878,
"combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.97257525083613,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 12.878550484594964,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.39573233311638,
"surface_rank_synergy": 9.50917485713078,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.989632107023404,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.7692307692307692,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 29.214,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 11.371237458193981,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.13517391304347826,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05546153846153845,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.955555555555554,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}