Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 12:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Kamil Majchrzak
Kamil …: 52,4% Reilly …: 47,6%
¿Por qué Kamil Majchrzak?
UTR 15,41 vs 15,11 (+0,30) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Kamil … Reilly … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,67 45,5%
Gamdom 2,00 1,81 50,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,91 2,10 52,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Kamil …: +9,3% Reilly …: -9,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Kamil Majchrzak
Ranking #59
UTR Rating 15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #36
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 20/30 = 66,7%
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -10,0000
rank_ratio 0,8387
log_rank_ratio -0,1759
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -152,0000
best_rank_diff -44,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 6,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 5,7315
surface_matches_ratio 0,8571
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 66,6667
surface_wr_p2 60,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,7059
surface_wr_p2_stable 58,9744
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -21,3403
first_serve_won_diff -4,8243
second_serve_won_diff -3,9829
bp_saved_diff -4,3657
bp_converted_diff 3,5157
aces_per_match_diff -8,8667
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 15,5600
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0866
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0341
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5714
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 5,7323
serve_consistency_p2 4,9306
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,1726
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1767
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0900
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,3000
utr_p1 0,8765
utr_p2 0,8412
utr_advantage 1,9608
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21823
API ID 15298539
Gamdom ID 563251
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21823,
    "api_id": 15298539,
    "gamdom_id": 563251,
    "player1": "Kamil Majchrzak",
    "player2": "Reilly Opelka",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T08:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.81
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.99,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5244,
    "prob_p2": 0.4756,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5244,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 59,
      "utr_singles": 15.41,
      "utr_ranking": 36,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.41,
      "ranking": 36,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
    "utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.29999999999999893,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8387096774193549,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -152,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -4.36571428571429,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
    "utr_advantage": 1.9607843137254832,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -44,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.17589066646366416,
    "rank_advantage": -10,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 6.666666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.515714285714285,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": -21.340333333333334,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0866141732283465,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0340909090909092,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -8.866666666666667,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.824285714285722,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.732318522731503,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.930552669838146,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.1726044430910927,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.70588235294117,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.982857142857142,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 15.560000000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17666666666666653,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08999999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.731523378582196,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}