Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 12:55
07 Ene 2026, 12:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Kamil Majchrzak
Kamil …: 52,4%
Reilly …: 47,6%
¿Por qué Kamil Majchrzak?
UTR 15,41 vs 15,11
(+0,30)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Kamil … | Reilly … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,00 | 1,81 | 50,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,91 | 2,10 | 52,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Kamil …: +9,3%
Reilly …: -9,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Kamil Majchrzak
Ranking
#59
UTR Rating
15,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#36
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
20/30 = 66,7%
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -10,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8387 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1759 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -152,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -44,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 6,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 5,7315 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8571 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,7059 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 58,9744 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 30,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -21,3403 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -4,8243 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,9829 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -4,3657 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,5157 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -8,8667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 15,5600 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0866 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0341 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5714 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,7323 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9306 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,1726 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1767 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0900 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,3000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8765 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8412 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,9608 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21823
API ID
15298539
Gamdom ID
563251
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21823,
"api_id": 15298539,
"gamdom_id": 563251,
"player1": "Kamil Majchrzak",
"player2": "Reilly Opelka",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T08:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.81
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.99,
"p2": 1.79
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5244,
"prob_p2": 0.4756,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5244,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 59,
"utr_singles": 15.41,
"utr_ranking": 36,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 30,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 63,
"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.41,
"ranking": 36,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.11,
"ranking": 79,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.876470588235294,
"utr_p2": 0.8411764705882353,
"utr_diff": 0.29999999999999893,
"rank_ratio": 0.8387096774193549,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
"points_diff": -152,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -4.36571428571429,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 12.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.9607843137254832,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -44,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.17589066646366416,
"rank_advantage": -10,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 6.666666666666657,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.515714285714285,
"p1_surface_matches": 30,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": -21.340333333333334,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0866141732283465,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0340909090909092,
"aces_per_match_diff": -8.866666666666667,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -4.824285714285722,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.732318522731503,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.930552669838146,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.1726044430910927,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.70588235294117,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.982857142857142,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 15.560000000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.17666666666666653,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08999999999999997,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 5.731523378582196,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}