Marin Čilić vs Nuno Borges
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marin Čilić
Marin …: 57,0%
Nuno …: 43,0%
¿Por qué Marin Čilić?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Marin … | Nuno … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,00 | 1,80 | 50,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,75 | 2,33 | 57,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Marin …: +9,7%
Nuno …: -9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marin Čilić
Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
9/18 = 50,0%
Nuno Borges
Ranking
#46
UTR Rating
15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking
#64
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
18/35 = 51,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -26,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6438 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4403 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -355,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 27,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -1,4286 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,0256 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5143 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 51,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 51,2821 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 11,2270 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,3743 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,7200 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,1186 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,5929 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,3619 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -7,2000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6923 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7193 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4286 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,0009 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,2470 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,6290 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0260 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0117 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8506 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8506 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21825
API ID
15298421
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21825,
"api_id": 15298421,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
"player2": "Nuno Borges",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T07:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.0,
"p2": 1.8
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.9,
"p2": 1.88
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5704,
"prob_p2": 0.4296,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5704,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 70,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 46,
"utr_singles": 15.18,
"utr_ranking": 64,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 51.42857142857142,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.18,
"ranking": 64,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8505882352941176,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.6438356164383562,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": -355,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.1185714285714425,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 51.42857142857142,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 27,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4403118394383325,
"rank_advantage": -26,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -1.4285714285714235,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.5928571428571345,
"p1_surface_matches": 18,
"p2_surface_matches": 35,
"serve_quality_diff": 11.226952380952376,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7192982456140351,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.3619047619047624,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.374285714285705,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.000912205657409,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.24704413717357,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.6290169134833299,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.28205128205128,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.719999999999999,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5142857142857142,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -7.200000000000017,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.026000000000000023,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.011714285714285788,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.025641025641022,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}