Marin Čilić vs Nuno Borges
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 11:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marin Čilić
Marin …: 57,0% Nuno …: 43,0%
¿Por qué Marin Čilić?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marin … Nuno … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,75 2,33 57,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Marin …: +9,7% Nuno …: -9,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marin Čilić
Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 9/18 = 50,0%
Nuno Borges
Ranking #46
UTR Rating 15,18 Pro
UTR Ranking #64
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 18/35 = 51,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -26,0000
rank_ratio 0,6438
log_rank_ratio -0,4403
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -355,0000
best_rank_diff 27,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -1,4286
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,0256
surface_matches_ratio 0,5143
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 51,4286
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 51,2821
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 35,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 11,2270
first_serve_won_diff 7,3743
second_serve_won_diff 2,7200
bp_saved_diff 4,1186
bp_converted_diff -1,5929
aces_per_match_diff 3,3619
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -7,2000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6923
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7193
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 7,0009
serve_consistency_p2 8,2470
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,6290
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0260
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0117
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,8506
utr_p2 0,8506
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21825
API ID 15298421
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21825,
    "api_id": 15298421,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
    "player2": "Nuno Borges",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T07:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.9,
      "p2": 1.88
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5704,
    "prob_p2": 0.4296,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5704,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 46,
      "utr_singles": 15.18,
      "utr_ranking": 64,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.42857142857142,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.18,
      "ranking": 64,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8505882352941176,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.6438356164383562,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": -355,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.1185714285714425,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 51.42857142857142,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
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    "best_rank_diff": 27,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4403118394383325,
    "rank_advantage": -26,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -1.4285714285714235,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.5928571428571345,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 35,
    "serve_quality_diff": 11.226952380952376,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7192982456140351,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.3619047619047624,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.374285714285705,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.000912205657409,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.24704413717357,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.6290169134833299,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 51.28205128205128,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.719999999999999,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5142857142857142,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -7.200000000000017,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.026000000000000023,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.011714285714285788,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.025641025641022,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}