Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Pegula
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessica Pegula
Anna …: 26,3% Jessica …: 73,7%
¿Por qué Jessica Pegula?
UTR 12,44 vs 12,75 (-0,44) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Anna … Jessica … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,20 1,36 31,3%
Gamdom 2,55 1,54 39,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,81 1,36 26,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Anna …: -3,6% Jessica …: +3,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Anna Kalinskaya
Ranking #33
UTR Rating 12,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #28
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Jessica Pegula
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 12,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 34/49 = 69,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -27,0000
rank_ratio 0,1818
log_rank_ratio -1,7047
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -4122,0000
best_rank_diff -8,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -14,2153
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,1561
surface_matches_ratio 0,5918
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 55,1724
surface_wr_p2 69,3878
surface_wr_p1_stable 54,5455
surface_wr_p2_stable 67,9245
p1_surface_matches 29,0000
p2_surface_matches 49,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1034
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,9667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,5473
first_serve_won_diff -3,1143
second_serve_won_diff -0,7857
bp_saved_diff -5,2286
bp_converted_diff -3,7143
aces_per_match_diff -0,3772
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 7,8200
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 60,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5252
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6489
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,2132
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3571
serve_consistency_p1 17,5209
serve_consistency_p2 7,8730
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 24,2336
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0787
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1669
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4400
utr_p1 0,5118
utr_p2 0,5635
utr_advantage -3,5004
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21826
API ID 15302192
Gamdom ID 564696
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21826,
    "api_id": 15302192,
    "gamdom_id": 564696,
    "player1": "Anna Kalinskaya",
    "player2": "Jessica Pegula",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.2,
      "p2": 1.3599999999999999
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.54
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.52,
      "p2": 1.51
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2627,
    "prob_p2": 0.7373,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7373,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 33,
      "utr_singles": 12.44,
      "utr_ranking": 28,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 12.75,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 69.38775510204081,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 49,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.44,
      "ranking": 28,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.75,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5117647058823529,
    "utr_p2": 0.5635294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.4399999999999995,
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    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": -4122,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.228571428571435,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 30.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 55.172413793103445,
    "surface_wr_p2": 69.38775510204081,
    "utr_advantage": -3.5003977724741406,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -8,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.7047480922384253,
    "rank_advantage": -27,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.35714285714285715,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -14.215341308937369,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.7142857142857153,
    "p1_surface_matches": 29,
    "p2_surface_matches": 49,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.5472554539057057,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.648936170212766,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.213235294117647,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.3771991555242784,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.114285714285714,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5251978386542692,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.10344827586206896,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 17.520892559432184,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.873000516285715,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 24.233575976929057,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.9245283018868,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.7857142857142847,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5918367346938775,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 7.819999999999993,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0787241379310345,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16687755102040813,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.156089193825052,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}