Emerson Jones vs Liudmila Samsonova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
07 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Liudmila Samsonova
Emerson …: 17,3% Liudmila …: 82,7%
¿Por qué Liudmila Samsonova?
UTR 11,85 vs 12,36 (-0,56) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emerson … Liudmila … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,75 1,48 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 5,79 1,21 17,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Emerson …: -22,5% Liudmila …: +22,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emerson Jones
Ranking #153
UTR Rating 11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 3/7 = 42,9%
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking #18
UTR Rating 12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking #38
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 13/27 = 48,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -130,0000
rank_ratio 0,1156
log_rank_ratio -2,1572
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -1718,0000
best_rank_diff -138,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -5,2910
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,0146
surface_matches_ratio 0,2593
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 48,1481
surface_wr_p1_stable 46,8182
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,3871
p1_surface_matches 7,0000
p2_surface_matches 27,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3933
p2_confidence 0,9000
combined_confidence 0,6467
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,0424
first_serve_won_diff -5,7000
second_serve_won_diff -0,8000
bp_saved_diff -10,6000
bp_converted_diff -7,4000
aces_per_match_diff -3,4762
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 22,8800
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 82,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3750
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6290
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,1086
serve_consistency_p2 9,2508
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,4139
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0586
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1485
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5600
utr_p1 0,4471
utr_p2 0,5129
utr_advantage -4,6358
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21827
API ID 15302196
Gamdom ID 564695
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21827,
    "api_id": 15302196,
    "gamdom_id": 564695,
    "player1": "Emerson Jones",
    "player2": "Liudmila Samsonova",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-07T02:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.48
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.67,
      "p2": 1.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1728,
    "prob_p2": 0.8272,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8272,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 153,
      "utr_singles": 11.85,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 18,
      "utr_singles": 12.36,
      "utr_ranking": 38,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
      "wr_surface_wins": 13,
      "wr_surface_total": 27,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.85,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.36,
      "ranking": 38,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
    "utr_diff": -0.5599999999999987,
    "rank_ratio": 0.11564625850340136,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -1718,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -10.600000000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 48.148148148148145,
    "utr_advantage": -4.635761589403963,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -138,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.1572192427225203,
    "rank_advantage": -130,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -5.291005291005291,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.399999999999999,
    "p1_surface_matches": 7,
    "p2_surface_matches": 27,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.042380952380938,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.375,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6290322580645161,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.476190476190476,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6466666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.699999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.10862594216276,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.250836479937556,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.413858427103282,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.81818181818182,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.38709677419355,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.7999999999999972,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.25925925925925924,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 22.88000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 82,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05857142857142855,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14851851851851855,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.0145650048875865,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}