Emerson Jones vs Liudmila Samsonova
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
07 Ene 2026, 06:40
07 Ene 2026, 06:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Liudmila Samsonova
Emerson …: 17,3%
Liudmila …: 82,7%
¿Por qué Liudmila Samsonova?
UTR 11,85 vs 12,36
(-0,56)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Emerson … | Liudmila … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,75 | 1,48 | 36,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,79 | 1,21 | 17,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Emerson …: -22,5%
Liudmila …: +22,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emerson Jones
Ranking
#153
UTR Rating
11,85 Junior
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
3/7 = 42,9%
Liudmila Samsonova
Ranking
#18
UTR Rating
12,36 Pro
UTR Ranking
#38
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
13/27 = 48,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -130,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1156 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,1572 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1718,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -138,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -5,2910 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,0146 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,2593 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 48,1481 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 46,8182 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 48,3871 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,6467 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10,0424 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,7000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,8000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -10,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,4000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,4762 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 22,8800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 82,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,3750 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6290 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,1086 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,2508 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 11,4139 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0586 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1485 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4471 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5129 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,6358 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21827
API ID
15302196
Gamdom ID
564695
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21827,
"api_id": 15302196,
"gamdom_id": 564695,
"player1": "Emerson Jones",
"player2": "Liudmila Samsonova",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-07T02:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.48
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.67,
"p2": 1.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1728,
"prob_p2": 0.8272,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8272,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 153,
"utr_singles": 11.85,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Junior",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 18,
"utr_singles": 12.36,
"utr_ranking": 38,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.148148148148145,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.85,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Junior",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.36,
"ranking": 38,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.44705882352941184,
"utr_p2": 0.5129411764705881,
"utr_diff": -0.5599999999999987,
"rank_ratio": 0.11564625850340136,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 68.0,
"momentum_p2": 40.0,
"points_diff": -1718,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -10.600000000000001,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 28.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"p2_confidence": 0.9,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 48.148148148148145,
"utr_advantage": -4.635761589403963,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -138,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.1572192427225203,
"rank_advantage": -130,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 1,
"surface_wr_diff": -5.291005291005291,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.399999999999999,
"p1_surface_matches": 7,
"p2_surface_matches": 27,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.042380952380938,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.375,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6290322580645161,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.476190476190476,
"combined_confidence": 0.6466666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.699999999999996,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.10862594216276,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.250836479937556,
"surface_rank_synergy": 11.413858427103282,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.81818181818182,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.38709677419355,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.7999999999999972,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.25925925925925924,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 22.88000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 82,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05857142857142855,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.14851851851851855,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.0145650048875865,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}