Leylah Fernandez vs Dayana Yastremska
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leylah Fernandez
Leylah …: 58,4% Dayana …: 41,6%
¿Por qué Leylah Fernandez?
UTR 12,53 vs 12,26 (+0,26) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Leylah … Dayana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,57 2,38 63,7%
Gamdom 1,52 2,60 65,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,71 2,41 58,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Leylah …: -1,8% Dayana …: +1,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Leylah Fernandez
Ranking #23
UTR Rating 12,53 Pro
UTR Ranking #20
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 28/43 = 65,1%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking #28
UTR Rating 12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking #51
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 5,0000
rank_ratio 1,2273
log_rank_ratio 0,2048
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 217,0000
best_rank_diff 8,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 9,9439
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 9,1296
surface_matches_ratio 1,4828
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,1163
surface_wr_p2 55,1724
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,8298
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5455
p1_surface_matches 43,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3023
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -1,9483
first_serve_won_diff 3,1862
second_serve_won_diff -4,0207
bp_saved_diff -2,0897
bp_converted_diff -1,1138
aces_per_match_diff -1,1676
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 48,0000
momentum_diff 10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,3000
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 66,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8537
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8083
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 5,5997
serve_consistency_p2 9,9921
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,0364
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1462
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0567
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2600
utr_p1 0,5365
utr_p2 0,5059
utr_advantage 2,0917
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21828
API ID 15302205
Gamdom ID 564705
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21828,
    "api_id": 15302205,
    "gamdom_id": 564705,
    "player1": "Leylah Fernandez",
    "player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5699999999999998,
      "p2": 2.38
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.52,
      "p2": 2.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5844,
    "prob_p2": 0.4156,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5844,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 23,
      "utr_singles": 12.53,
      "utr_ranking": 20,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.11627906976744,
      "wr_surface_wins": 28,
      "wr_surface_total": 43,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 28,
      "utr_singles": 12.26,
      "utr_ranking": 51,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.53,
      "ranking": 20,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.26,
      "ranking": 51,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5364705882352941,
    "utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 1.2272727272727273,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 217,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.0896551724137993,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 9.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.11627906976744,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
    "utr_advantage": 2.0917135961383733,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 8,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.20479441264601322,
    "rank_advantage": 5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 9.943865276663999,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.1137931034482662,
    "p1_surface_matches": 43,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": -1.9483079390537412,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8536585365853658,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1676022453889336,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.1862068965517167,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3023255813953488,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.599708945901517,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.99210294498876,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.0364480487654895,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.829787234042556,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.0206896551724185,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4827586206896552,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.299999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14616279069767446,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05672413793103448,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.129593810444883,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}