Leylah Fernandez vs Dayana Yastremska
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Leylah Fernandez
Leylah …: 58,4%
Dayana …: 41,6%
¿Por qué Leylah Fernandez?
UTR 12,53 vs 12,26
(+0,26)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Leylah … | Dayana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,57 | 2,38 | 63,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,52 | 2,60 | 65,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,71 | 2,41 | 58,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Leylah …: -1,8%
Dayana …: +1,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Leylah Fernandez
Ranking
#23
UTR Rating
12,53 Pro
UTR Ranking
#20
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
28/43 = 65,1%
Dayana Yastremska
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
12,26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#51
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
16/29 = 55,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 5,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,2273 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,2048 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 217,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 8,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 9,9439 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 9,1296 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4828 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,1163 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,1724 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,8298 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5455 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3023 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1,9483 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,1862 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,0207 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,0897 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,1138 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,1676 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 48,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,3000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 66,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8537 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8083 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,5997 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,9921 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,0364 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1462 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0567 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5365 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5059 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,0917 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21828
API ID
15302205
Gamdom ID
564705
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21828,
"api_id": 15302205,
"gamdom_id": 564705,
"player1": "Leylah Fernandez",
"player2": "Dayana Yastremska",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5699999999999998,
"p2": 2.38
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.52,
"p2": 2.6
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.56
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5844,
"prob_p2": 0.4156,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5844,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 23,
"utr_singles": 12.53,
"utr_ranking": 20,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.11627906976744,
"wr_surface_wins": 28,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 12.26,
"utr_ranking": 51,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.172413793103445,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.53,
"ranking": 20,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.26,
"ranking": 51,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5058823529411766,
"utr_diff": 0.2599999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 1.2272727272727273,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 48.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 217,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.0896551724137993,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 9.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.11627906976744,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.172413793103445,
"utr_advantage": 2.0917135961383733,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 8,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.20479441264601322,
"rank_advantage": 5,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 9.943865276663999,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.1137931034482662,
"p1_surface_matches": 43,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.9483079390537412,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8536585365853658,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8083333333333333,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.1676022453889336,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.1862068965517167,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3023255813953488,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.599708945901517,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.99210294498876,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.0364480487654895,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.829787234042556,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.54545454545454,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.0206896551724185,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4827586206896552,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.299999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14616279069767446,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05672413793103448,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 9.129593810444883,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}