Ella Seidel vs Sonay Kartal
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 11:15
08 Ene 2026, 11:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ella Seidel
Ella …: 60,0%
Sonay …: 40,0%
¿Por qué Ella Seidel?
UTR 12,03 vs 12,38
(-0,17)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ella … | Sonay … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 3,50 | 1,31 | 28,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,67 | 2,50 | 60,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Ella …: +20,2%
Sonay …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ella Seidel
Ranking
#82
UTR Rating
12,03 Pro
UTR Ranking
#98
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/38 = 68,4%
Sonay Kartal
Ranking
#66
UTR Rating
12,38 Pro
UTR Ranking
#35
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
16/28 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -16,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8095 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2113 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -118,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -40,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 11,2782 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,0694 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3571 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 68,4211 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 56,2500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 38,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 28,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3684 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,4990 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,2756 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,2346 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,9387 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,1718 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,5658 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -6,8700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6757 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2857 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,1305 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,7028 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,3832 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2002 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0554 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4835 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5035 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,3940 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21851
API ID
15302244
Gamdom ID
564745
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21851,
"api_id": 15302244,
"gamdom_id": 564745,
"player1": "Ella Seidel",
"player2": "Sonay Kartal",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T07:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.5,
"p2": 1.31
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.39,
"p2": 1.31
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5996,
"prob_p2": 0.4004,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5996,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 82,
"utr_singles": 12.03,
"utr_ranking": 98,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 38,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 66,
"utr_singles": 12.38,
"utr_ranking": 35,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 28,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.03,
"ranking": 98,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.38,
"ranking": 35,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4835294117647058,
"utr_p2": 0.5035294117647058,
"utr_diff": -0.16999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 0.8095238095238095,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -118,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.938721804511275,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 68.42105263157895,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": -1.3940139401394007,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -40,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2113090936672069,
"rank_advantage": -16,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 11.278195488721806,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.1718045112781965,
"p1_surface_matches": 38,
"p2_surface_matches": 28,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.4989849624060128,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6756756756756757,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.5657894736842106,
"combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.2755639097744265,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3684210526315789,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.13049013034911,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.702794685853061,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.3831852669233866,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.2345864661654105,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3571428571428572,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -6.8700000000000045,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2002105263157895,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05542857142857138,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.069444444444436,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}