Ella Seidel vs Sonay Kartal
Auckland | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 11:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ella Seidel
Ella …: 60,0% Sonay …: 40,0%
¿Por qué Ella Seidel?
UTR 12,03 vs 12,38 (-0,17) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ella … Sonay … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 3,50 1,31 28,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,67 2,50 60,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Ella …: +20,2% Sonay …: -20,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ella Seidel
Ranking #82
UTR Rating 12,03 Pro
UTR Ranking #98
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/38 = 68,4%
Sonay Kartal
Ranking #66
UTR Rating 12,38 Pro
UTR Ranking #35
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 16/28 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -16,0000
rank_ratio 0,8095
log_rank_ratio -0,2113
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -118,0000
best_rank_diff -40,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 11,2782
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 10,0694
surface_matches_ratio 1,3571
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 68,4211
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 66,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 56,2500
p1_surface_matches 38,0000
p2_surface_matches 28,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3684
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9333
combined_confidence 0,9667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,4990
first_serve_won_diff 3,2756
second_serve_won_diff -4,2346
bp_saved_diff 5,9387
bp_converted_diff -3,1718
aces_per_match_diff 1,5658
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,8700
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6757
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2857
serve_consistency_p1 11,1305
serve_consistency_p2 7,7028
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,3832
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2002
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0554
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1700
utr_p1 0,4835
utr_p2 0,5035
utr_advantage -1,3940
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21851
API ID 15302244
Gamdom ID 564745
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21851,
    "api_id": 15302244,
    "gamdom_id": 564745,
    "player1": "Ella Seidel",
    "player2": "Sonay Kartal",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T07:15:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.5,
      "p2": 1.31
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.39,
      "p2": 1.31
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5996,
    "prob_p2": 0.4004,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5996,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 82,
      "utr_singles": 12.03,
      "utr_ranking": 98,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 68.42105263157895,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 38,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 66,
      "utr_singles": 12.38,
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      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 28,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
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  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 98,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 35,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
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  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_diff": -0.16999999999999993,
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    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -118,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.938721804511275,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
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    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 68.42105263157895,
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    "rank_advantage": -16,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
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    "bp_converted_diff": -3.1718045112781965,
    "p1_surface_matches": 38,
    "p2_surface_matches": 28,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.4989849624060128,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6756756756756757,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.5657894736842106,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.2755639097744265,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3684210526315789,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.13049013034911,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.702794685853061,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.3831852669233866,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 66.66666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 56.25,
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    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2002105263157895,
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    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.069444444444436,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}