Polina Iatcenko vs Joanna Garland
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Polina Iatcenko
Polina …: 78,3% Joanna …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Polina Iatcenko?
UTR 11,97 vs 11,86 (+0,22) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Polina … Joanna … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,91 1,91 52,4%
Gamdom 2,20 1,71 45,5%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,62 78,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Polina …: +28,3% Joanna …: -28,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Iatcenko
Ranking #159
UTR Rating 11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #115
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 8/10 = 80,0%
Joanna Garland
Ranking #117
UTR Rating 11,86 Pro
UTR Ranking #143
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 3/7 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -34,0000
rank_ratio 0,7914
log_rank_ratio -0,2339
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -127,0000
best_rank_diff -44,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 37,1429
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 8,7945
surface_matches_ratio 1,4286
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 80,0000
surface_wr_p2 42,8571
surface_wr_p1_stable 71,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,1515
p1_surface_matches 10,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4333
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,4133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -54,5100
first_serve_won_diff -63,3000
second_serve_won_diff -56,2000
bp_saved_diff -41,5000
bp_converted_diff -52,5000
aces_per_match_diff -3,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 15,7700
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,6866
serve_consistency_p2 4,1228
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -8,6891
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3340
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1054
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2200
utr_p1 0,4576
utr_p2 0,4318
utr_advantage 1,8676
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21853
API ID 15302428
Gamdom ID 564783
Torneo Canberra, Australia
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21853,
    "api_id": 15302428,
    "gamdom_id": 564783,
    "player1": "Polina Iatcenko",
    "player2": "Joanna Garland",
    "tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.9100000000000001,
      "p2": 1.9100000000000001
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.71
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.09,
      "p2": 1.71
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7834,
    "prob_p2": 0.2166,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7834,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 159,
      "utr_singles": 11.97,
      "utr_ranking": 115,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 80.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 10,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 117,
      "utr_singles": 11.86,
      "utr_ranking": 143,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.97,
      "ranking": 115,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.86,
      "ranking": 143,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45764705882352946,
    "utr_p2": 0.43176470588235294,
    "utr_diff": 0.22000000000000064,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7914110429447853,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -127,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -41.5,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 22.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 80.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8675721561969492,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -44,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.23393779644509025,
    "rank_advantage": -34,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 37.142857142857146,
    "bp_converted_diff": -52.5,
    "p1_surface_matches": 10,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -54.51,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.41333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -63.3,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.686550892662376,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.1227579042908244,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -8.689118153674782,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.151515151515156,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -56.2,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4285714285714286,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 15.769999999999982,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3340000000000001,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.10542857142857148,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.794516594516594,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}