Polina Iatcenko vs Joanna Garland
Canberra, Australia | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
07 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Polina Iatcenko
Polina …: 78,3%
Joanna …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Polina Iatcenko?
UTR 11,97 vs 11,86
(+0,22)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Polina … | Joanna … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,91 | 1,91 | 52,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,20 | 1,71 | 45,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,62 | 78,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Polina …: +28,3%
Joanna …: -28,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Polina Iatcenko
Ranking
#159
UTR Rating
11,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#115
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
8/10 = 80,0%
Joanna Garland
Ranking
#117
UTR Rating
11,86 Pro
UTR Ranking
#143
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
3/7 = 42,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -34,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7914 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2339 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -127,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -44,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 37,1429 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 8,7945 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4286 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 71,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,1515 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 10,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,6000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4333 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4133 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -54,5100 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -63,3000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -56,2000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -41,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -52,5000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 22,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 15,7700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,6866 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,1228 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -8,6891 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3340 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1054 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4576 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4318 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,8676 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21853
API ID
15302428
Gamdom ID
564783
Torneo
Canberra, Australia
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21853,
"api_id": 15302428,
"gamdom_id": 564783,
"player1": "Polina Iatcenko",
"player2": "Joanna Garland",
"tournament": "Canberra, Australia",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.9100000000000001,
"p2": 1.9100000000000001
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.71
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.09,
"p2": 1.71
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7834,
"prob_p2": 0.2166,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7834,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 159,
"utr_singles": 11.97,
"utr_ranking": 115,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 80.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 8,
"wr_surface_total": 10,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 117,
"utr_singles": 11.86,
"utr_ranking": 143,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.97,
"ranking": 115,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.86,
"ranking": 143,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.43176470588235294,
"utr_diff": 0.22000000000000064,
"rank_ratio": 0.7914110429447853,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -127,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -41.5,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 22.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.43333333333333335,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 80.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 42.857142857142854,
"utr_advantage": 1.8675721561969492,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -44,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.23393779644509025,
"rank_advantage": -34,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 37.142857142857146,
"bp_converted_diff": -52.5,
"p1_surface_matches": 10,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -54.51,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.41333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -63.3,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.6,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.686550892662376,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.1227579042908244,
"surface_rank_synergy": -8.689118153674782,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 71.42857142857143,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.151515151515156,
"second_serve_won_diff": -56.2,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4285714285714286,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 15.769999999999982,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.3340000000000001,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.10542857142857148,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 8.794516594516594,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}