Stan Wawrinka vs Sebastián Báez
United Cup | Hard |
07 Ene 2026, 14:45
07 Ene 2026, 14:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Stan …: 71,2%
Sebastián …: 28,8%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stan … | Sebastián … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,67 | 2,10 | 59,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,72 | 2,13 | 58,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,40 | 3,48 | 71,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stan …: +15,5%
Sebastián …: -15,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#139
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -113,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,2756 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,2887 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -748,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 28,5714 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 12,8148 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4286 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 21,4286 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 27,7778 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 14,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4867 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,5767 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 15,4009 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,0229 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5,3457 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 9,8886 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6,1743 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,8929 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -31,5810 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 2,4615 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5441 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6250 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,1388 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,3849 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -36,8187 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1130 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,3987 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7835 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7835 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21858
API ID
15322082
Gamdom ID
576380
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21858,
"api_id": 15322082,
"gamdom_id": 576380,
"player1": "Stan Wawrinka",
"player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-07T10:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.1
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.72,
"p2": 2.13
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.2
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7123,
"prob_p2": 0.2877,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7123,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 139,
"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 36,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": null,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.64,
"ranking": 139,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": null
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7835294117647059,
"utr_p2": 0.7835294117647059,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.27564102564102566,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 38.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": -748,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 9.888571428571417,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -32.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.2886558915559745,
"rank_advantage": -113,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 28.571428571428573,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.174285714285716,
"p1_surface_matches": 20,
"p2_surface_matches": 14,
"serve_quality_diff": 15.400857142857134,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 2.4615384615384617,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.892857142857142,
"combined_confidence": 0.5766666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.02285714285712,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.138768111815084,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.384900880762656,
"surface_rank_synergy": -36.81873975874213,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.345714285714287,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4285714285714286,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -31.581000000000003,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11299999999999999,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.3987142857142857,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.814814814814815,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}