Stan Wawrinka vs Sebastián Báez
United Cup | Hard |
07 Ene 2026, 14:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Stan …: 71,2% Sebastián …: 28,8%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stan … Sebastián … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,67 2,10 59,9%
Gamdom 1,72 2,13 58,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,40 3,48 71,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Stan …: +15,5% Sebastián …: -15,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking #139
UTR Rating 14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 10/20 = 50,0%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking #36
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -113,0000
rank_ratio 0,2756
log_rank_ratio -1,2887
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -748,0000
best_rank_diff 15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 28,5714
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 12,8148
surface_matches_ratio 1,4286
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 21,4286
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 27,7778
p1_surface_matches 20,0000
p2_surface_matches 14,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6667
p2_confidence 0,4867
combined_confidence 0,5767
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,4009
first_serve_won_diff 8,0229
second_serve_won_diff 5,3457
bp_saved_diff 9,8886
bp_converted_diff -6,1743
aces_per_match_diff 4,8929
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 38,0000
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -32,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -31,5810
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 2,4615
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5441
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6250
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,1388
serve_consistency_p2 5,3849
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -36,8187
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1130
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,3987
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,7835
utr_p2 0,7835
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21858
API ID 15322082
Gamdom ID 576380
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21858,
    "api_id": 15322082,
    "gamdom_id": 576380,
    "player1": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-07T10:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.72,
      "p2": 2.13
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.2
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7123,
    "prob_p2": 0.2877,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7123,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 139,
      "utr_singles": 14.64,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 36,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
      "wr_surface_wins": 3,
      "wr_surface_total": 14,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.64,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7835294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.7835294117647059,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.27564102564102566,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 38.0,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": -748,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 9.888571428571417,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -32.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.4866666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 21.428571428571427,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.2886558915559745,
    "rank_advantage": -113,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.625,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 28.571428571428573,
    "bp_converted_diff": -6.174285714285716,
    "p1_surface_matches": 20,
    "p2_surface_matches": 14,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.400857142857134,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 2.4615384615384617,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5441176470588235,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 4.892857142857142,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5766666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.02285714285712,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.138768111815084,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.384900880762656,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -36.81873975874213,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 27.77777777777778,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 5.345714285714287,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4285714285714286,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -31.581000000000003,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11299999999999999,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.3987142857142857,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 12.814814814814815,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}