Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 09:30
07 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 65,0%
Tomas …: 35,0%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,29
(+0,53)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Tomas … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,28 | 3,75 | 78,1% |
| Gamdom | 1,62 | 2,31 | 61,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,54 | 2,86 | 65,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Lorenzo …: -9,6%
Tomas …: +9,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Ranking
#62
UTR Rating
15,29 Pro
UTR Ranking
#52
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
14/26 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 50,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 8,1429 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,0971 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 3,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3095,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 21,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 5,6133 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,8564 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,4231 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 59,4595 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 53,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,5366 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 53,3333 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 37,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 26,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1892 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,8667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,2575 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0225 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 9,6102 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,7129 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,3220 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,5759 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -6,8150 | |
| current_streak_diff | -2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 54,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0545 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0407 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2857 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,2202 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,9670 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 11,7719 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0446 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0885 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 16,8399 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9247 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8624 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,3985 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21859
API ID
15298432
Gamdom ID
576381
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21859,
"api_id": 15298432,
"gamdom_id": 576381,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Tomas Martin Etcheverry",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-07T05:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.28,
"p2": 3.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.62,
"p2": 2.31
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.65,
"prob_p2": 0.35,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.65,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 62,
"utr_singles": 15.29,
"utr_ranking": 52,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
"wr_surface_wins": 14,
"wr_surface_total": 26,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.77,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.29,
"ranking": 52,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.9247058823529412,
"utr_p2": 0.8623529411764705,
"utr_diff": 0.5299999999999994,
"rank_ratio": 8.142857142857142,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": 3095,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.71288981288982,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -30.000000000000014,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
"surface_wr_p2": 53.84615384615385,
"utr_advantage": 3.3985251683231765,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 21,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.097141118779237,
"rank_advantage": 50,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 5.613305613305613,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.3220374220374183,
"p1_surface_matches": 37,
"p2_surface_matches": 26,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.25748440748442647,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0406504065040652,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.5758835758835756,
"combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.022453222453208355,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.22018860005052,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.967048906056971,
"surface_rank_synergy": 11.771894013937503,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"second_serve_won_diff": 9.61018711018712,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.4230769230769231,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -6.814999999999998,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 16.83991683991684,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 54,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04459459459459458,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08846153846153848,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.85636856368563,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}