Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 16
07 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo …: 65,0% Tomas …: 35,0%
¿Por qué Lorenzo Musetti?
UTR 15,77 vs 15,29 (+0,53) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Lorenzo … Tomas … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,28 3,75 78,1%
Gamdom 1,62 2,31 61,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,54 2,86 65,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Lorenzo …: -9,6% Tomas …: +9,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking #5
UTR Rating 15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #9
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 22/37 = 59,5%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Ranking #62
UTR Rating 15,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #52
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 14/26 = 53,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 50,0000
rank_ratio 8,1429
log_rank_ratio 2,0971
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 3095,0000
best_rank_diff 21,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 5,6133
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,8564
surface_matches_ratio 1,4231
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 59,4595
surface_wr_p2 53,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,5366
surface_wr_p2_stable 53,3333
p1_surface_matches 37,0000
p2_surface_matches 26,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1892
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,8667
combined_confidence 0,9333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,2575
first_serve_won_diff 0,0225
second_serve_won_diff 9,6102
bp_saved_diff -2,7129
bp_converted_diff -2,3220
aces_per_match_diff -1,5759
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,8150
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 54,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0545
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0407
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4667
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,2857
serve_consistency_p1 6,2202
serve_consistency_p2 4,9670
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 11,7719
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0446
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0885
elite_surface_amplifier 16,8399
UTR
utr_diff 0,5300
utr_p1 0,9247
utr_p2 0,8624
utr_advantage 3,3985
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21859
API ID 15298432
Gamdom ID 576381
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21859,
    "api_id": 15298432,
    "gamdom_id": 576381,
    "player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
    "player2": "Tomas Martin Etcheverry",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-07T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.28,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.62,
      "p2": 2.31
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.65,
    "prob_p2": 0.35,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.65,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 5,
      "utr_singles": 15.77,
      "utr_ranking": 9,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 37,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 62,
      "utr_singles": 15.29,
      "utr_ranking": 52,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.84615384615385,
      "wr_surface_wins": 14,
      "wr_surface_total": 26,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "ranking": 9,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
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      "ranking": 52,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.8623529411764705,
    "utr_diff": 0.5299999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 8.142857142857142,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": 3095,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.71288981288982,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -30.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 59.45945945945946,
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    "utr_advantage": 3.3985251683231765,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 21,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.097141118779237,
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    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4666666666666667,
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    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 5.613305613305613,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.3220374220374183,
    "p1_surface_matches": 37,
    "p2_surface_matches": 26,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.25748440748442647,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0544554455445545,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0406504065040652,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.5758835758835756,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.022453222453208355,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.1891891891891892,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.22018860005052,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.967048906056971,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 11.771894013937503,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.536585365853654,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 9.61018711018712,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.4230769230769231,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.814999999999998,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 16.83991683991684,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 54,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04459459459459458,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08846153846153848,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.85636856368563,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}