Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 92,2% Sorana …: 7,8%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,48 (+0,51) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Aryna … Sorana … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,13 6,00 88,5%
Gamdom 1,09 8,20 91,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,08 12,77 92,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Aryna …: +8,0% Sorana …: -8,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (10p)
WR Hard 36/42 = 85,7%
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking #41
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 26/41 = 63,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 40,0000
rank_ratio 41,0000
log_rank_ratio 3,7136
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 9247,0000
best_rank_diff 20,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 22,2997
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 20,3865
surface_matches_ratio 1,0244
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 85,7143
surface_wr_p2 63,4146
surface_wr_p1_stable 82,6087
surface_wr_p2_stable 62,2222
p1_surface_matches 42,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,7143
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 2,3652
first_serve_won_diff 0,8598
second_serve_won_diff 2,8620
bp_saved_diff 11,2119
bp_converted_diff 2,5383
aces_per_match_diff 0,5383
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1536
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9589
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8182
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 6,9215
serve_consistency_p2 6,3189
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 82,8114
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,3171
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1741
elite_surface_amplifier 44,5993
UTR
utr_diff 0,5100
utr_p1 0,5788
utr_p2 0,5188
utr_advantage 4,0268
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21864
API ID 15302197
Gamdom ID 564715
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21864,
    "api_id": 15302197,
    "gamdom_id": 564715,
    "player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
    "player2": "Sorana Cirstea",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.13,
      "p2": 6.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 8.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.1,
      "p2": 7.18
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.9217,
    "prob_p2": 0.0783,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.9217,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 12.97,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
      "wr_surface_wins": 36,
      "wr_surface_total": 42,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 41,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.97,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 41.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 9247,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 11.211904761904762,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
    "surface_wr_p2": 63.41463414634146,
    "utr_advantage": 4.026845637583891,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 20,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 3.713572066704308,
    "rank_advantage": 40,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 22.299651567944245,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.5382694541231032,
    "p1_surface_matches": 42,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": 2.3651684088269462,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.958904109589041,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.5383275261324041,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.859814169570285,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.9215160757242336,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.318908488485727,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 82.81136315995667,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.22222222222222,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.8620209059233446,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.024390243902439,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 44.59930313588849,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.31714285714285706,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17414634146341468,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.386473429951685,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}