Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 05:00
08 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna …: 92,2%
Sorana …: 7,8%
¿Por qué Aryna Sabalenka?
UTR 12,97 vs 12,48
(+0,51)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Aryna … | Sorana … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,13 | 6,00 | 88,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,09 | 8,20 | 91,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,08 | 12,77 | 92,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Aryna …: +8,0%
Sorana …: -8,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Aryna Sabalenka
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
12,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
36/42 = 85,7%
Sorana Cirstea
Ranking
#41
UTR Rating
12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
26/41 = 63,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 40,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 41,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,7136 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 9247,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 20,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 22,2997 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 20,3865 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0244 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 85,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 63,4146 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 82,6087 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 62,2222 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 42,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,7143 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 2,3652 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,8598 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,8620 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 11,2119 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,5383 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,5383 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1536 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,9589 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8182 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,9215 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,3189 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 82,8114 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3171 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1741 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 44,5993 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,0268 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21864
API ID
15302197
Gamdom ID
564715
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21864,
"api_id": 15302197,
"gamdom_id": 564715,
"player1": "Aryna Sabalenka",
"player2": "Sorana Cirstea",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.13,
"p2": 6.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 8.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.1,
"p2": 7.18
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.9217,
"prob_p2": 0.0783,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.9217,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 12.97,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 85.71428571428571,
"wr_surface_wins": 36,
"wr_surface_total": 42,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 41,
"utr_singles": 12.48,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 63.41463414634146,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
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},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 25,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5188235294117647,
"utr_diff": 0.5099999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 41.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 9247,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 11.211904761904762,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 85.71428571428571,
"surface_wr_p2": 63.41463414634146,
"utr_advantage": 4.026845637583891,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 20,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 3.713572066704308,
"rank_advantage": 40,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8181818181818182,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 22.299651567944245,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.5382694541231032,
"p1_surface_matches": 42,
"p2_surface_matches": 41,
"serve_quality_diff": 2.3651684088269462,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1535714285714285,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.958904109589041,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.5383275261324041,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.859814169570285,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.7142857142857143,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.9215160757242336,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.318908488485727,
"surface_rank_synergy": 82.81136315995667,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 82.6086956521739,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 62.22222222222222,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.8620209059233446,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.024390243902439,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 44.59930313588849,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.31714285714285706,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17414634146341468,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 20.386473429951685,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}