Diana Shnaider vs Madison Keys
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 09:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Madison Keys
Diana …: 31,7% Madison …: 68,3%
¿Por qué Madison Keys?
UTR 12,43 vs 12,50 (-0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Diana … Madison … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,35 1,63 42,6%
IA Fair Odds 3,16 1,46 31,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Diana …: -9,6% Madison …: +9,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Diana Shnaider
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 12,43 Pro
UTR Ranking #29
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/31 = 51,6%
Madison Keys
Ranking #9
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 24/32 = 75,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -14,0000
rank_ratio 0,3333
log_rank_ratio -1,0986
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -2469,0000
best_rank_diff -6,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -23,3871
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -20,7937
surface_matches_ratio 0,9688
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 51,6129
surface_wr_p2 75,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 51,4286
surface_wr_p2_stable 72,2222
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0323
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -7,8500
first_serve_won_diff -4,4000
second_serve_won_diff -1,1250
bp_saved_diff -0,1375
bp_converted_diff 1,8563
aces_per_match_diff -2,6563
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 62,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff 22,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,4540
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8855
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7788
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 8,6533
serve_consistency_p2 8,5611
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 25,6934
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0301
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2360
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1400
utr_p1 0,5094
utr_p2 0,5259
utr_advantage -1,1290
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21865
API ID 15302189
Gamdom ID 564690
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21865,
    "api_id": 15302189,
    "gamdom_id": 564690,
    "player1": "Diana Shnaider",
    "player2": "Madison Keys",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T05:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.62
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.35,
      "p2": 1.63
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.34,
      "p2": 1.59
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3168,
    "prob_p2": 0.6832,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6832,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 12.43,
      "utr_ranking": 29,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 51.61290322580645,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 9,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 75.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 12.43,
      "ranking": 29,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
    "utr_diff": -0.14000000000000057,
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    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 62.000000000000014,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": -2469,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.13749999999999574,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 22.000000000000014,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 51.61290322580645,
    "surface_wr_p2": 75.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.1290322580645207,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -6,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.0986122886681098,
    "rank_advantage": -14,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -23.38709677419355,
    "bp_converted_diff": 1.8562500000000028,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -7.850000000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.8854961832061069,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.778816199376947,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.65625,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.399999999999999,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.03225806451612903,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.653330245142817,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.561056301882594,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 25.693351912399343,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.42857142857142,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 72.22222222222221,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.125,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.96875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.454000000000008,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.030129032258064514,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.236,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -20.79365079365079,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}