Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Grigor Dimitrov
Raphael …: 36,8% Grigor …: 63,2%
¿Por qué Grigor Dimitrov?
UTR 14,93 vs 15,67 (-0,95) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Raphael … Grigor … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
Gamdom 2,70 1,47 37,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,72 1,58 36,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Raphael …: +2,4% Grigor …: -2,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Grigor Dimitrov
Ranking #45
UTR Rating 15,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #12
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/16 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -37,0000
rank_ratio 0,5595
log_rank_ratio -0,5807
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -376,0000
best_rank_diff -70,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 3,1250
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 2,9815
surface_matches_ratio 2,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,6250
surface_wr_p2 62,5000
surface_wr_p1_stable 63,8889
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,0000
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 16,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3125
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,5333
combined_confidence 0,7667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,6906
first_serve_won_diff 0,4500
second_serve_won_diff 4,4688
bp_saved_diff -6,5688
bp_converted_diff 9,7438
aces_per_match_diff 1,0625
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 92,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff 12,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9123
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,8000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 6,1869
serve_consistency_p2 4,4614
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -1,8146
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1933
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0880
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9500
utr_p1 0,8082
utr_p2 0,9200
utr_advantage -6,1909
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21869
API ID 15298543
Gamdom ID 563256
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21869,
    "api_id": 15298543,
    "gamdom_id": 563256,
    "player1": "Raphael Collignon",
    "player2": "Grigor Dimitrov",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-01-08T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.7,
      "p2": 1.47
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.65,
      "p2": 1.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3677,
    "prob_p2": 0.6323,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6323,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 45,
      "utr_singles": 15.67,
      "utr_ranking": 12,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 16,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.67,
      "ranking": 12,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.92,
    "utr_diff": -0.9500000000000011,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5595238095238095,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 92.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": -376,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -6.568750000000001,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 12.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.625,
    "surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
    "utr_advantage": -6.19094167481265,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -70,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.580669197133255,
    "rank_advantage": -37,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 3.125,
    "bp_converted_diff": 9.743750000000006,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 16,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.690624999999997,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9122807017543859,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.0625,
    "combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.45000000000000284,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3125,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.186875372419148,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.461430018246972,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -1.814591241041422,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.46875,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19325000000000003,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08799999999999997,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.9814814814814787,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}