Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 16
08 Ene 2026, 12:30
08 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Grigor Dimitrov
Raphael …: 36,8%
Grigor …: 63,2%
¿Por qué Grigor Dimitrov?
UTR 14,93 vs 15,67
(-0,95)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Raphael … | Grigor … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,44 | 36,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,70 | 1,47 | 37,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,72 | 1,58 | 36,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Raphael …: +2,4%
Grigor …: -2,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Raphael Collignon
Ranking
#72
UTR Rating
14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking
#96
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
21/32 = 65,6%
Grigor Dimitrov
Ranking
#45
UTR Rating
15,67 Pro
UTR Ranking
#12
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
10/16 = 62,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -37,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5595 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5807 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -376,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -70,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 3,1250 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,9815 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,6250 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 63,8889 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 16,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3125 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5333 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,6906 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,4500 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,4688 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6,5688 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 9,7438 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,0625 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 92,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 12,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9123 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,8000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,1869 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,4614 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,8146 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1933 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0880 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,9500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8082 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9200 | |
| utr_advantage | -6,1909 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21869
API ID
15298543
Gamdom ID
563256
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21869,
"api_id": 15298543,
"gamdom_id": 563256,
"player1": "Raphael Collignon",
"player2": "Grigor Dimitrov",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-01-08T08:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.7,
"p2": 1.47
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.65,
"p2": 1.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3677,
"prob_p2": 0.6323,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6323,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 72,
"utr_singles": 14.93,
"utr_ranking": 96,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.625,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 45,
"utr_singles": 15.67,
"utr_ranking": 12,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 16,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.93,
"ranking": 96,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.67,
"ranking": 12,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.92,
"utr_diff": -0.9500000000000011,
"rank_ratio": 0.5595238095238095,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 92.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": -376,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.568750000000001,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.33333333333333337,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 12.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.625,
"surface_wr_p2": 62.5,
"utr_advantage": -6.19094167481265,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -70,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.580669197133255,
"rank_advantage": -37,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.8,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 3.125,
"bp_converted_diff": 9.743750000000006,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 16,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.690624999999997,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9122807017543859,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.5,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.0625,
"combined_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.45000000000000284,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.3125,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.186875372419148,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.461430018246972,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.814591241041422,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 63.888888888888886,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.46875,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.19325000000000003,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.08799999999999997,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.9814814814814787,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}